Electrification

This is not one of the super fact posts. It is just a post related to an interest of mine that is informational. I volunteer for an organization called Citizens Climate Lobby, or CCL. CCL is a bipartisan organization that works with both Democrats and Republicans to create the political will for climate solutions. During the month of August CCL is promoting what is called electrification. Clean energy is taking the world with storm, but energy / electric power is not the only source of carbon emissions / greenhouse gases.

Take for example, transportation. Most cars still use gasoline and to move towards a fossil fuel free future we must move towards using transportation that uses less fossil fuels such as EV cars. We need to electrify transportation. Another aspect of electrification is replacing gas stoves with induction stoves, installing solar panels, as well as lowering the energy use of your house.

A picture of houses by a lake | Electrification
Lowering the energy consumption of your house lowers your emissions. Photo by Frans van Heerden on Pexels.com

EV Cars

At least here in Texas it is quite common to believe that EV cars do not reduce emissions. After all EV cars use electricity from the dirty grid, right? Often this is said to environmentalists and people who care about fossil fuels emissions as if they don’t understand that the electricity for EV cars typically comes from the dirty grid. However, they do know that. In fact, they know a little bit more. EV cars are much more efficient than Internal Combustion Engine cars , or ICE, and therefore the emissions caused by EVs via the electrical grid, even a coal powered grid, is significantly less per mile. In fact, replacing gasoline-powered cars with EVs saves energy, regardless of the energy source used to recharge the EVs. For an ICE 16-25% of the original energy goes to the wheels whereas for an EV 87-91% of the original energy goes to the wheels.

Image showing an ICE car and its various losses | Electrification
16-25% of original energy goes to the wheels. Data from FuelEconomy.gov, Image by Karin Kirk for Yale Connections.
Image showing an EV car and its various losses | Electrification
87-91% of original energy goes to the wheels. Data from FuelEconomy.gov, Image by Karin Kirk for Yale Connections.

On the other hand, it takes more energy to manufacture an EV battery for an EV car than it does to produce a combustion engine. So, the production of an electric vehicle does emit more carbon than a petrol car. However, the lower emissions resulting from driving an EV means that an electric car quickly pays back its debt, so to speak. It is typically paid back within two years.

According to Hannah Richie at Our World in Data the statistics show that switching from an average ICE to an equally sized EV will save 1.2 tons of carbon emissions per person and year. That is a lot considering that the average carbon footprint per year is 4 tons worldwide and 14.4 tons per year for an American. Hannah Richie at Our World in Data also states that other environmental damages related to EVs such as mining for minerals are less than mining and extraction for fossil fuel cars, and she claims that the price of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by 98% over the last three decades.

Blonde woman pumping gas.
Photo by Andersen EV on Pexels.com

EVs are becoming increasingly common. According to Our World in Data in 2022, 88% of all cars sold in Norway were EVs and 54% of all cars in Sweden were EVs. The United States is lagging a bit at 7.5% but there is a tax credit $7,000.00 for new EVs and a $4,000.00 tax credit for buying used EVs. I should add that we have not yet bought an EV because after I took early retirement, I did not need a car. We just share my wife’s hybrid, which we hardly ever drive.

Induction Stoves

We bought an electric stove, an induction stove, a couple of years ago when our previous stove stopped working. They come with an $840.00 rebate. I’ve read that professional chefs prefer gas stoves. However, our induction stove provides everything we need for our cooking needs and my beer brewing needs and it is easier to clean. If you are a professional chef you may want to be able switch the high heat on and off quicker, but we are not professional chefs even though the food we cook is delicious.

Another downside of an induction stove is that if the power goes out you can’t cook, but that has not been a problem for us. Considering that we get our electricity from a power company, Green Mountain Energy, that utilizes renewable energy, wind and solar, you can claim that our stove is 100% fossil fuel free.

One cooking plate is red hot. The stove itself is made of granite.
Our induction stove with the lights in the kitchen turned off.

Heat Pumps

Air source heat pumps, which are the most common type of heat pumps, are a great, energy efficient choice for heating your home and water and as well as being low maintenance, they can help to cut your heating costs and lower your carbon footprint. An air source heat pump absorbs heat from the air outside a building and releases it inside. It uses the same vapor-compression refrigeration process and much the same equipment as an air conditioner, but in the opposite direction.

Air-to-air heat pumps provide hot or cold air directly to rooms. Heat pumps are the main way to phase furnaces but are also typically more efficient than other types of heaters and air conditioners and thus they reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There is an up to $8,000.00 upfront discount for heat pumps and a 30% tax credit up to $2,000.00. I should say we do not have a heat pump.

Grey heat pump standing towards the wall of an old red brick house.
Air heat pump installed on the exterior facade of the old house. Sustainable heating solutions for old construction. Stock Photo ID: 2349325553 by Snapshot freddy.

Rooftop solar

Another great thing that we have been thinking about but do not have yet is rooftop solar. Rooftop solar power system, or rooftop photo voltaic systems, consist of electricity-generating solar panels mounted on the rooftop of a residential or commercial building or structure. Residential rooftop solar power systems typically feature a capacity of about 5–20 kilowatts.

The average American household uses 1.2 kilowatts on average. Most rooftop solar systems are connected to the grid and can feed the extra power into the grid for compensation. I should add this is not entirely without difficulty. There are also hybrid systems which include any combination of wind turbines, diesel generators, and batteries for electricity on demand. There is a 30% tax credit for rooftop solar.

Solar panels being installed | Electrification
Photo by Kindel Media on Pexels.com

Miscellaneous Energy Savings

Saving energy is not exactly the same thing as electrification but it is a related topic. If you electrify your home and also reduce your energy needs, you are reducing emissions.

A few years ago, we changed the insulation in our house to reduce our energy needs and our electric bill. It made a difference. We also did weatherstripping, installed three pane windows and high security doors, that were well-insulated and reduced heat-loss. We received significant tax credits for doing this. I don’t remember how much, but it was several thousand dollars. I can add that you get a $150 tax credit for a home energy audit.

What do you think about electrification and energy savings?

Do you have additional ideas for electrification and energy savings?


To see the Super Facts click here


US Violent Crime Nearly Cut in Half Since 1990

Superfact 8 : US Violent Crime Nearly Cut in Half Since 1990

Despite all the news reports about rampant crime, the US violent crime rate has fallen to half of what it was in the early 1990’s.

I’ve known for a while that violent crime in the US has been going down substantially since 1990. However, quite often when I mention this people refuse to believe it. When I visit NextDoor, the hyperlocal social networking service for neighborhoods, I see people complaining about rising crime, and especially rising violent crime. The news media and the newspapers are filled with violent crime stories, murders, mass shootings, assaults, rape, and robberies. It seems to be getting worse and worse. We are living in scary times, aren’t we?

The Better Angels of our Nature

A couple of years ago I bought a book by Steven Pinker with the title The Better Angels of our Nature, why violence has declined, which contradicted the violence is getting worse narrative. In the book he claims that violence is trending down worldwide and that includes US violent crime.

In 1987 I received a Christmas present from the parents of a fellow student whom I had been tutoring. I was an exchange student to the United States from Sweden at the time. The Christmas present in question was the World Almanac of 1987. I loved it and ever since I’ve bought the World Almanac every year. If you open the pages for crime statistics in the United States in the World Almanac you see the same thing, violent crime in the US is declining.

The colorful front page of The World Almanac and Book of Facts 2023. It features photographs of events in 2023 as well as a picture of the northern hemisphere of Earth.
The World Almanac and Book of Facts 2023.

Statistics

Below is what the World Almanac 2023 says about the violent crime rate per 100,000 residents in the United States (page 114). The data sources were : Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of Justice, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2020. I also included property crimes in the last column to show that non-violent crimes have declined as well.

YearAll violent crimeMurder and nonnegligent manslaughterRapeRobberyAggravated assaultAll property crime (non-violent)
1990729.69.441.1256.3422.95,073.1
1995684.58.237.1220.9418.34,590.5
2000506.55.532.0145.0324.03,618.3
2005469.05.631.8140.8290.83,431.5
2008458.65.429.8145.9277.53,214.6
2011387.14.727.0113.9241.52,905.4
2014361.64.426.6101.3229.22,574.1
2016386.65.430.0102.9248.32,451.6
2017383.85.330.798.6249.22,362.9
2018370.45.031.086.1248.22,209.8
2019368.65.131.481.8250.42,130.6
2020387.86.527.673.9279.71,958.2

The graph below is taken from this article from the Pew Research Center tells the same story. The graph. It shows that the US violent crime rate has nearly halved since the 1990’s. There is a slight uptick in crime for the years 2020 and 2021 but according to this PBS article the downward trend has continued in 2022 and 2023.

The first graph shows that violent crime per 100,000 people (FBI) has gone from 747.1 in 1990 to 380.7 in 2022. The next three graphs show the same trends | US Violent Crime Nearly Cut in Half Since 1990
The four graphs show that both violent crime and property crime has declined since 1990. Click on the picture to see the Pew Research article it is taken from.

Since this is a surprising fact that some does not even want to acknowledge (in my experience) I consider this a super fact.

Do you feel it is hard to believe that violent crime in the US has been declining over the last few decades?


To see the other Super Facts click here

Blog Note Opinions Welcome

This post is not another super fact but a blog note about the blog and a request for opinions. My most recent post included three super facts combined into one post. The three super facts were:

  • There has been a steep decline in extreme poverty
  • There has been a steep decline in child mortality
  • War and violence have declined

The post became very long. It had more than 2,000 words and several graphs filled with additional text and data. In addition, I rushed the third super fact. The discussion of the third super fact was muddy, incomplete, and it lacked references. Therefore, I deleted the third super fact. I think that was the right thing to do, especially since I had planned a separate super fact entry for it anyway with the title “We are living in relatively peaceful times”. I will write that post for it soon.

The updated post featuring only the two first super facts is called: “Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide”.

However, I’ve realized that some of my other posts have problems as well. The second half of the post titled “Two events may be simultaneous for some but not for others”  feature equations and complex reasoning that physics nerds may appreciate but not typical readers. I don’t think I need to delete that section but, in the future, I need separate such sections from the rest and make it clear that I don’t expect readers to read that, well unless they are physics or math nerds, etc.

Image showing a disintegrating brain | blog note
Expand your mind. Smash your old beliefs with new surprising facts, so called super facts. But there’s no need to confuse or bore your mind. Shutterstock ID: 1685660680 by MattL_Images

So, I am wondering what you all think about this and if you have suggestions or opinions on how I can improve my super fact posts. Blog notes are very much welcome.



To see the Super Facts click here


Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide

Superfact 7 : Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide.

Extreme poverty as well as child mortality has been sharply reduced the world over. The countries that are the worst-off today are still better off than the countries that were doing the best at the beginning of the 19th century. Over the last 20 years extreme poverty and child mortality has continued to decline sharply.

In Hans Rosling’s book Factfulness, “Ten Reasons We’re are Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think”, the author presented a quiz that he wanted the reader to take before reading the book. Below is the third question of the quiz. I should say that Hans Rosling posed this and other questions to thousands of people around the world.

In the last 20 years, the proportion of the World population living in extreme poverty has…

  • A. Almost doubled
  • B. Remained more or less the same
  • C. Almost halved

The correct answer is C. Almost halved. Around 7% of the quiz takers got the right answer. Around 5% in the United States got it right. That the proportion of the World population living in extreme poverty halved in 20 years is a true fact. This is also an important fact about the world. Despite that most people got it wrong. In fact, monkeys randomly picking answers would do better (33%). I did pretty well on this quiz, but since I was reading the book and the book’s title is “Ten Reasons We’re are Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think”,  I got some help just looking at the front cover. In any case, I think this fact qualifies as a super fact, as do the other fact below (There has been a steep decline in child mortality).

This picture feature five statements (1) Extreme poverty has gone from around 35% 30 years ago to 8-9% now. (2) The share of undernourished people went from 28% in 1970 to 11% in 2015. (3) Children dying before their fifth birthday went from 40-60% in 1800 to 22.7% in 1950 to 3.6% in 2020. (4) Children dying before their fifth birthday in the US went from 3.7% in 1950 to 0.6% in 2023.
These are selected facts from the data.

There has been a steep decline in extreme poverty

According to the World Bank and Our Data World in Data, an organization which makes data in databases easily accessible to public, extreme poverty went from almost 80% 200 years ago, 60% 100 years ago, about 45% 50 years ago, 34.3% 30 years ago, 23.6%  20 years ago, 8.4% in 2019, then it went up to 9% during the covid epidemic but it seems to be back down to a bit above 8% again. See the graph below as well as the two linked articles in this paragraph.

I should say that extreme poverty is (by the UN, World Bank, etc.) “a condition characterized by severe deprivation of basic human needs, including food, safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, health, shelter, education and information” and is currently defined to be below $2.15. In 2011 it was below $1.90.

The graph shows share living in extreme poverty in brown and share not living in extreme poverty in purple. The graph begins in 1820 at ends in 2018.
This graph from Our World In Data shows a steep decline in extreme poverty over time. Click on the picture to visit the original article.

Other related statistics mentioned in Hans Rosling’s book is that the share of undernourished people went from 28% in 1970 to 11% in 2015. That is despite the earth’s growing population. Related to this is that cereal yield per hectare went from 1.4 ton in 1961 to 4 ton in 2014. This is due to modern agricultural techniques. The share of people with water from protected sources went from 58% in 1980 to 88% in 2015. This statistic was taken from WHO, UNICEF, the World Bank and FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organization).

There has been a steep decline in child mortality

According to Hans Rosling’s book the percent of children dying before their fifth birthday went from 44% in 1800 to 4% in 2016. To get a more complete picture see these articles from Our World In Data, article1, article2, as well as the graph below. For most of humanities existence virtually all societies suffered a child mortality rate between 40% and 60%, but that changed drastically over the last 100 years.

This graph is a world map showing the child mortality rate in different countries as indicated by colors. All countries are red, meaning it is above 30%.
Child mortality rate worldwide in 1800. Some of the data are estimates and may not be reliable. Data sources are UN IGME and Gapminder (an organization similar to Our World In Data).
This graph is a world map showing the child mortality rate in different countries as indicated by colors. Niger has the highest child mortality rate of 11.6% and Iceland the lowest at 0.2%.
Child mortality rate worldwide in 2023. Niger has the highest child mortality rate of 11.6% and Iceland the lowest at 0.2%.
This graphics contain two graphs one for the world (blue) and for the United States (red) | Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide
Child mortality in in the world since 1950. The spike you see around the end of 1950 to 1960 is the great leap forward famine in China. In 1950 the child mortality rate was 22.7% and 2023 the child mortality rate was 3.6%.

Below is the child mortality rate since 1950 for a few selected countries.

The red graph is showing a decline from 20% in 1950 to 0.7% in 2023 with a spike of almost 40% around 1960 | Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide
Child mortality in China since 1950. The large spike you see around the end of 1950 to 1960 is the great leap forward famine. 15 to 55 million died from starvation. In 2023 the child mortality rate was 0.7%.
The graph shows a steady decline from 3.7% in 1950 to 0.6% in 2023. The decline of the graph is slower towards the end | Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide
Child mortality in the United States since 1950 (3.7%). In 2023 the child mortality rate was 0.6%.
The graph shows a steady decline from 2.6% in 1950 to 0.2% in 2023 | Poverty and child mortality has been sharply reduced worldwide
Child mortality in Sweden since 1950 (2.6%). In 2023 the child mortality rate was 0.2%.


To see the other Super Facts click here

Radon Represents our Largest Exposure to Ionizing Radiation

Superfact 6 : Radon Represents our Largest Exposure to Ionizing Radiation

Radon represents our largest exposure to ionizing radiation. It is responsible for the majority of public exposure to harmful radiation. It is not the sun, the sky, nuclear weapons or nuclear power, or medical treatment, other terrestrial sources, it’s radon. Since we don’t talk much about the very deadly radiation emitted by the radon in our basements that may come as a surprise.

If a radioactive isotope has a long half-life, is that bad? I mean it will be around for a long time. Well, it is complicated. It is important to understand that if the decay rate for an isotope is very slow, in other words, it has a long half-life then it will be less radioactive. If the half-life is 1,000,000 shorter for an isotope X compared to an isotope Y (with a slower decay rate) than it is 1,000,000 more radioactive than isotope Y assuming their decay is of the same type. Short half life means more radioactivity. Long half-life means less radioactivity. The negative aspect of an isotope with a long half-life is that it will be around long, but the positive aspect is that it is less radioactive.

The image shows a Uranium atom on the left arrows in the middle and an alpha particle, a gamma ray, a proton, a neutron, and an electron on the right | Radon Represents our Largest Exposure to Ionizing Radiation
Radioactive decay is the emission of energy in the form of ionizing radiation. There are different types of decay and the decay-rate for different isotopes vary a lot. Stock Vector ID: 2417370135 by grayjay.

I should explain that isotopes mean that an atom can have a different number of neutrons. For example, carbon (coal) has a few common isotopes. C-12 has 6 protons and 6 neutrons,  C-13 has 6 protons and 7 neutrons,  C-14 has 6 protons and 8 neutrons. The isotope we are talking about when we talk about Radon is Radon-222. That is a really bad one. Radon-222 has a half life of 3.8 days which is 432 billion times shorter than Uranium-238, which has a half life of 4.5 billion years. So, if Radon-222 and  Uranium-238 had the same type of decay (they don’t) Radon-222 would be 432 billion times more radioactive than Uranium-238.

Admittedly Uranium-238 isn’t very radioactive, you can safely hold it, but let’s take Plutonium-238, a famously radioactive isotope with a half-life of 87.7 years. Radon-222 has a half-life that is 8,424 times shorter yielding a decay rate and radiation intensity 8,424 times larger than Plutonium-238.

Radon

An illustration with a blue nucleus surrounded by 86 blue electrons
Radon-222 isotope has 86 electrons, 86 protons and 136 neutrons. Stock Vector ID: 1919418095 by saran insawat

So, Radon-222 is indeed extremely radioactive. But that means it should disappear quickly. Unfortunately, the inside of the earth is constantly supplying more Radon-222 from the radioactive decay and fission occurring there. Nuclear fission (nuclear reactions)  is happening inside the earth providing about half of earth’s heat and powering the movement of Earth’s continents and crust. Since Radon-222 is extremely radioactive and is being resupplied by our own planet it is a very big source of the radiation we are exposed to.

Among all the different kinds of sources it is the biggest one. Since Radon-222 is a natural phenomenon, and we focus on so many other types of other natural and unnatural radiation sources we tend to underestimate the problem. At least I did when we bought our first house. I was asking Radon, what Radon? I think it is a surprising and important fact and therefore a super fact.

Radon Exposure

The various pathways of radon entering a house are shown as red arrows. The house is an illustration.
Illustration of how radon-222 enters a house. Stock Vector ID: 2128365599 by VectorMine.

The WHO estimates that radon exposure alone was estimated to have caused 84,000 deaths by lung cancer in one year. In 50 years, this would be 4.2 million deaths. The WHO predicted that the eventual total death toll from cancer related deaths from the worst nuclear disaster in history, Chernobyl, was 9,000, which is a lot less than 4.2 million. The numbers given by Greenpeace (which WHO does not accept) are up to a million and the Union of Concerned Scientists estimated 27,000.

Those numbers are all still smaller than the estimated deaths from Radon. Keep in mind that the Chernobyl reactor was a very dangerous reactor (RBMK) that lacked a containment shield, a reactor that could never be built in a western country. I can add that according to WHO the predicted future cancer deaths due to accumulated radiation exposures in the population living near Fukushima was between zero and a 100.

According to the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, more than 40% of the average annual human exposure to ionizing radiation is radon in the air. The other sources (all smaller) are cosmic background radiation, terrestrial radiation from the ground, radiation in food and water, exposure to radiation by medical treatment/exams, nuclear testing, Chernobyl, etc. According to former U.S. Surgeon General Richard H. Carmona, Radon is responsible for the majority of public exposure to ionizing radiation. Radon in our basements is indeed a very big deal compared to other radiation sources.


To see the other Super Facts click here