The goal of this blog is to create a list of super facts. Important facts that are true with very high certainty and yet surprising, misunderstood, or disputed by many. This blog aims to be challenging, educational, and fun, without it being clickbait. I determine veracity using evidence, data from reputable sources and longstanding scientific consensus. Prepare to be challenged (I am). Intentionally seek the truth not confirmation of your belief.
Author: thomasstigwikman
My name is Thomas Wikman. I am a software/robotics engineer with a background in physics. I am currently retired. I took early retirement. I am a dog lover, and especially a Leonberger lover, a home brewer, craft beer enthusiast, I’m learning French, and I am an avid reader. I live in Dallas, Texas, but I am originally from Sweden. I am married to Claudia, and we have three children. I have two blogs. The first feature the crazy adventures of our Leonberger Le Bronco von der Löwenhöhle as well as information on Leonbergers. The second blog, superfactful, feature information and facts I think are very interesting. With this blog I would like to create a list of facts that are accepted as true among the experts of the field and yet disputed amongst the public or highly surprising. These facts are special and in lieu of a better word I call them super-facts.
Superfact 145: Fusion Power, a type of Nuclear Power, is a clean source of power that is potentially nearly limitless. It would likely not run out of fuel for millions of years. Unfortunately, we do not yet have a working commercial fusion power plant. However, we are continuously getting closer.
Nuclear fusion power generator concept image. Shutterstock asset id: 2262106105 by MeshCube.
Nuclear Fusion is the process of combining atomic nuclei, for example, hydrogen nuclei into heavier nucleus / atoms. This is the opposite of fission, the splitting of nuclei, which is used in contemporary nuclear power stations. Nuclear fusion is the process that powers the sun.
The sun is powered by Nuclear Fusion. Elements of this image furnished by NASA. Shutterstock asset id: 2454170413 by Artsiom PIn nuclear fission (left) nuclei are split. In nuclear fusion nuclei are combined (right).
Unlike nuclear fission, nuclear fusion does not generate much radioactive waste. Another advantage is that nuclear fusion is nearly limitless. Tritium is the most limited fuel for fusion power, but you can generate it from Lithium ore. Fusion specialists state that, in a world where all energy would be produced by fusion, the quantity of fuel lithium ore present in landmass would be sufficient to provide the required tritium for several thousand years. As for lithium present in oceans, it could last us millions of years. Unfortunately, we do not yet have a working commercial fusion power plant.
A 3D rendering of a miniaturized model of a fusion reactor. A magnetic field confines superheated plasma within a doughnut-shaped chamber in which fusion occurs, similar to inside the sun. Shutterstock asset id: 2407257965 by Love Employee
Nuclear fusion would be the holy grail of clean energy, or nearly clean energy, if we had a working commercial fusion power plant. However, the fact that this technology exists and that we are getting close to a commercial fusion power plant is quite astonishing and a surprise to those who were unaware of its existence. Therefore, it is a super fact.
Is Commercial Nuclear Fusion Viable ?
Commercial nuclear fusion is not yet viable for widespread power generation but a lot of investment in the technology is moving it closer to commercial realization. In 2022 the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, using IFC laser technology produced more energy from fusion than the energy delivered by the laser realizing the fusion. The consensus among energy scientists seems to be that fusion won’t be ready for widespread power generation until at least after 2050 or 2060.
In my, somewhat less professional opinion, this is too long to wait before addressing both current and future energy needs as well as threat of global warming / climate change, which is chiefly caused by us burning fossil fuels. Luckily, there is an unfolding clean energy revolution with solar, wind, battery storage replacing fossil fuels around the world.
A Brief Overview of Fusion Reactors
To make atomic nuclei fuse you need extremely high temperatures, several millions of degrees Celsius. At these extreme temperatures, the electrons are stripped away from atoms, turning the gas into a charged and superheated so called plasma. Particle beams, electrical currents, or radio waves are used to heat the plasma. This superheated plasma needs to be confined. The superheated plasma cannot be allowed to touch any other matter as it would instantly melt it. The plasma must be suspended midair. This is something that is very difficult to do.
There are different ways of doing this. One way is to confine the plasma in donut shaped vacuum chambers using powerful magnetic fields. This is referred to as a Tokamak. See the picture below. The surrounding layer is heated and boils water driving turbines driving generators generating electricity.
This is an illustrative image showing the internal structure of fusion plasma. Shutterstock asset id: 2814557501 by minoru Suzuki
The picture below shows the poloidal field coils, which are ring-shaped electromagnets used in a tokamak. It also illustrates the magnetic fields in the tokamak fusion reactor. The picture is taken from here.
Magnetic fields in a tokamak. R.A. Pitts, R.J. Buttery, S.D. Pinches, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Another way to confine the plasma is to use high-powered lasers or ion beams.
Superfact 144: Modern Physics including Quantum Physics and Relativity is fundamentally different from Classical Physics. Even if you include Relativity in Classical Physics, which is often done, it is still fundamentally different from “Classic Classical Physics”.
Electrons (and other particles) don’t have specific positions. They are probability clouds. This is an illustration of the helium atom, depicting the nucleus (pink) and the electron cloud distribution (black). The black bar is one angstrom (10−10 m or 100 pm). The nucleus is 0.01pm. User: Yzmo, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Classical physics and modern physics represent two major phases in our understanding of how the universe works. Classical physics includes fields such as classical mechanics, electromagnetism, optics, and thermodynamics. Modern physics include relativity and quantum mechanics. However, relativity is often said to be classical physics as well as modern physics.
In classical physics time and space are independent of the observers, objects can have exact positions and velocities, and if you measure them precisely you can make exact predictions. Furthermore, energy and matter are continuous. In relativity time and space are relative, and there is no universal now. The order of events depends on the observer and energy and mass are interchangeable. In quantum physics particles do not have a specific positions or velocities, they behave as both particles and waves, and energy is quantized. In quantum physics you have probabilities instead of certainties. The electrons (and other particles) in atoms are described as probability clouds (see picture above). Classical physics and modern physics are very different.
Amy is traveling at a high speed to the left compared to two lamps A and B. Alan is standing still compared to the lamps. Adam is traveling at a high speed to the right compared to two lamps A and B. Alan turns on the lamps at the same time. After considering the travel time of the light she sees, Amy concludes that lamp B turned on first. After considering the travel time of the light he sees, Adam concludes that lamp A turned on first. I should add this non-simultaneity can only happen if the lamps are separated by a distance.
A famous but simple formula from quantum mechanics is the Heisenberg uncertainty principle which states that you cannot both know the exact position and momentum (that is mass times velocity) of a particle. Another version of it states that you cannot both know the exact energy and the time interval to measure it. Basically, it is impossible to know a particle’s quantities exactly. They don’t even exist other than as probabilities.
Heisenberg uncertainty principle Shutter Stock Vector ID: 2380436193 by Sasha701
The difference between how things work in classical physics and in modern physics is very large. The language and philosophy of classical physics and modern physics is not even the same. I believe that the fact that there is such a large and distinct difference between the two phases of physics comes as a big surprise to those who were unaware of it. Since this fact is important and potentially surprising, perhaps mind-blowing, it is a super fact in my opinion.
It is easy to think that modern physics is philosophical, mysterious, esoteric, and impractical. It is not. Pretty much all of the electronics you have ever used exist because of modern physics. Modern physics is also essential for lasers, MRI and PET scans, modern medicine, nuclear power, nuclear weapons, GPS, atomic clocks, solar power, small-scale nanotechnology, and a large amount of new materials. That might be a super fact all in itself.
Special Relativity
Relativity comes in two flavors, special relativity and general relativity both pioneered by the physicist Albert Einstein. Special relativity states that the speed of light in vacuum is a universal constant c = 299,792,458 meters per second. The speed of light in vacuum is the same for all observers regardless of their speed and the direction in which they are going. It is always c = 299,792,458 meters per second. If you try to catch up to a light beam and try to travel close to the speed of the light beam, you will not be able to catch up. The speed of the light beam will still be c = 299,792,458 meters per second compared to you no matter how fast you go. In fact, anything without (rest) mass will travel at exactly this speed compared to everything else, whilst nothing else could ever reach or exceed this speed.
Four rockets, A, B, C, and D, are traveling along a light (laser) beam. No matter how fast they travel along the light beam, the light beam will always travel c = 299,792,458 meters per second faster than they do. I generated this picture with the help of ChatGPT.
Mass is energy and vice versa, a direct result of the way time and space are related. Stock Photo ID: 2163111377 by Aree_SIf you measure the space coordinates in meters and the time in seconds you must adjust the units to match by inserting the speed of light in vacuum c = 299,792,458. The three forms of the space interval now have the constant c attached to the time coordinate.
General Relativity
In General Relativity gravity is not viewed as a force over distance. Mass / energy is distorting the local space-time creating the effects of gravity. Even though the end result is very similar to Newton’s theory of gravity, the General Theory of Relativity is much more accurate. The General Theory of Relativity also predicts that clocks will be running slower in gravitational fields. It predicts gravity waves, and the strange behavior of black holes, and it is necessary for GPS to work.
Earth is a mass that distorts space-time resulting in what we call gravity.3D illustration of giant Black hole in deep space. High quality digital space art in 5K – realistic visualization. Stock Illustration ID: 2476711459 by Vadim Sadovski.
Quantum Physics
As mentioned, in quantum physics, particles do not have specific positions or velocities. See the Heisenberg uncertainty principle above. In quantum physics you have probabilities instead of certainties, and energy is quantized. The electrons (and other particles) in atoms are described as probability clouds. Particles behave as both particles and waves, the so called wave particle duality. Particles exhibit both wave-like and particle-like properties depending on the type of measurement. An example is the famous double slit experiment.
If you shoot electrons, or any particle, through a double slit (panel with two slits) they will show up on the detector panel behind the first panel as if they were a wave. There will be interference patterns (multiple bands), the same as you would get from light waves or water waves. You will even get the interference pattern if you shoot the electrons one by one. However, if you try to detect the individual electrons to see which slit they went through you will get just two bands as if the electrons were bullets going through the slits. In other words, if you look at them, they won’t do the beautiful interference pattern anymore, as if they are saying, “if you look at me, I won’t do it”.
Photons or matter (like electrons) produce an interference pattern with multiple bands when two slits are used. Original: NekoJaNekoJa Vector: Johannes Kalliauer, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
One amazing discovery was that of anti-particles / anti-matter. Anti-matter was predicted in 1928 by the physicist Paul Dirac when he combined quantum mechanics with Albert Einstein’s special theory of relativity. A few years later (1932) the anti-particle of the electron, called the positron was discovered. Since then, many anti-particles have been found. I can add that Matter and anti-matter annihilate upon contact releasing enormous amounts of energy.
Annihilation of a positron (at the top left) and an electron (bottom left) with the release of energy and gamma quanta Shutterstock asset id: 2200151693 by Sergey Merkulov
Conclusion
Going from classical physics to modern physics represented a huge quantum leap forward (pun intended) both with respect to our understanding of the Universe and the technological revolution this shift (paradigm shift) caused.
Superfact 143: Climate Change has been happening for billions of years, and it had nothing to do with us humans. However, the experts on past climate are telling us that the current rapid global warming, or if you call it climate change, or climate disruption, is not natural but is caused by us. Understanding why they say this is crucial to understanding what is going on with climate.
Global temperature from 20,000 BCE until now. Notice the relatively stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization. Also, notice the slight cooling followed by the very sharp increase in average global temperature at the end.
The sharp spike in the global average temperatures towards the right side of the graph above is caused by us humans, chiefly by our burning of fossil fuels. A very common objection to this claim is “Climate has always changed”, or “I think it is a natural cycle”, etc. Such statements dismiss out of hand the expertise of the scientists who are the experts on past climate and natural causes for climate change. They are nearly unanimously stating that natural causes cannot explain the current rapid global warming, and it is obvious why if you look at the evidence.
To quote Katherine Hayhoe, a well-known climate scientist : “Hi, I’m a climate scientist. You may know me from my greatest hits including, “No, it’s not a natural cycle,” “Yes, I know it’s been warmer before (and the only reason YOU know this is because we scientists told you so)”
The evidence that we humans are the cause for the current rapid global warming is certainly not limited to the fact that no known natural cause of climate change can explain the current global warming. There is plenty of direct evidence that we are the cause. However, the fact that we know that no natural cause of climate change can explain the current warming is obviously news to nearly half of the American public and therefore an important and surprising fact by itself. It is a super fact. The faulty assumption that the current rapid warming is “natural” prevents many from trying to understand the evidence that show that we are responsible for it.
Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming
One type of important type of climate forcing that’s been the cause behind the multiple ice ages that we’ve had over the last two million years are earth’s orbital cycles, or the Milankovitch cycles. There are primarily three orbital cycles, orbital eccentricity, change in axial tilt, and axial precession. Could they be responsible for the recent climate disruption and sudden warming?
Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle. Earth’s orbit varies from nearly circular to slightly elliptical and this change can cause climate change. This shift in Earth’s orbit takes place over periods of about 100,000 and 400,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of Earth’s eccentricity.
Changes in Obliquity (Tilt)
The angle Earth’s axis of rotation is tilted as it travels around the Sun is known as obliquity. Obliquity is why Earth has seasons. Over the last million years, it has varied between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees with respect to Earth’s orbital plane. The greater Earth’s axial tilt angle, the more extreme our seasons are. In addition, a larger tilt angle favor periods of deglaciation. The changes of Earth’s obliquity have a period of 41,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of the changes in obliquity.
Axial Precession (Wobble)
Earth wobbles slightly as it rotates, like a slightly off-center spinning top. The axis of Earth’s wobble changes slowly and is called axial precession. The corresponding cycle spans 25,771.5 years, or approximately 26,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of the changes in axial precession.
Why Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming
The changes in Earth’s eccentricity take place over 100,000 to 400,000 years, The changes of Earth’s obliquity have a period of 41,000 years and Earth’s Wobble cycle is around 26,000 years. These cycles are hundreds of times longer than the sudden uptick in temperature that we are witnessing today.
NASA and other organizations keep track of these cycles, and they are causing a slow cooling, not a sudden warming. Obviously, the cause for the rapid warming must be something else.
Depending on what is causing a climate forcing the climate change / warming will happen in different ways. The different types of climate forcing have different fingerprints if you will. For example, we are seeing a “blanket effect”. The lower atmosphere is warming while the upper atmosphere is cooling as if the atmosphere is acting like a blanket. That is greenhouse gases, not orbital cycles or the sun.
The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming
The Sun is not the cause of current global warming. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen significantly. The current warming is driven by human-made greenhouse gases, not changes in the Sun.
Solar irradiance (yellow) plotted with temperature (red) since 1880. NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
The graph above compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun’s energy received by Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square meter since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious. You can read more about why the Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming, here or here or here.
Elements of this image furnished by NASA. Shutterstock asset id: 2454170413 by Artsiom P
In summary, the fluctuations in the sun radiance are much quicker than the orbital cycles. However, we still know that the Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because the Sun’s energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. We also know that Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because if it was the Sun the upper atmosphere would not be cooling and the temperature increases would be distributed differently across Earth and distributed differently with respect to time. That’s the blanket effect again.
To read more about why the sun is not the cause of the current Global Warming click here.
Volcanoes emit a tiny fraction of carbon compared to humans
Volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion metric tons annually. Human emissions are roughly 60 to 100 times greater than all global volcanic output combined. Thus, volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming.
Volcano – An active volcano that erupts lava. Stock Illustration ID: 2497156167 by MERT1995
There are some wild and false claims on social media claiming that “a single volcanic eruption release as much CO2 as all of humanity has to date” Or even much more than that. As Snopes explains this is nonsense. As mentioned, volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion to 38 metric tons annually. Thus, volcanoes emit only a small fraction of CO2 compared to what we do burning fossil fuels. Which also means that volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming. You can read more about this here, or here, or here, or here.
Human carbon missions (green line) vs. emissions from volcanic eruptions (purple line). Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Burton et al., 2013.
To read more about why volcanoes cannot be the cause of the current Global Warming click here.
Carbon Cycle Emissions Does Not Cause Global Warming
There are a lot of natural carbon emissions from the soil, rotting plants, animal and human respiration, and oceans, and a small amount from volcanoes. However, carbon is also absorbed by the oceans, and by plants via photosynthesis, etc., and this creates a balance that has existed for many thousands of years. This is called the carbon cycle. Despite the fact that the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are smaller than some of the naturally occurring carbon emissions mentioned, they are what is behind the increase of carbon in the atmosphere because they are a new addition that disrupts the balance.
The flow of carbon between the different carbon reservoirs is in balance, until we add the human contribution shown in yellow. Since this is not part of the original carbon cycle the amount of carbon in the atmosphere grew from 600 Gigatons (pre-industrial) to 900 Gigatons. Note that 10 tons of carbon correspond to 37 tons of carbon dioxide. The picture above was drawn by me and is an adaptation of Figure 3.1 on page 31 in the book “The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss”.
You can read more about the carbon cycle and our recent human additions by clicking here. The explanations in that post are also better and more detailed.
Additional Points on Climate Change
Another related but different issue that confused a lot of people is the role of water vapor. Water vapor is responsible for roughly half of Earth’s total greenhouse effect, but only as an amplifier of what is caused by carbon emissions. Unlike carbon dioxide or methane, water vapor condenses and falls as precipitation. Water molecules only stay in the atmosphere for about two weeks. We do not directly control global water vapor levels. When carbon dioxide warms the planet the atmosphere holds more water vapor, which amplifies the initial warming. However, water vapor does not drive global warming. Carbon dioxide emissions and to a lesser degree methane emissions drive global warming.
Illustration of simple water cycle diagram. Water vapor, a greenhouse gas, is added to the atmosphere from evaporation (the sea) and transpiration (soil, plants, etc.) Then it condenses into clouds and comes down as precipitation. It collects in rivers, etc., and ends up in oceans and lakes. – Shutterstock asset id: 2524245337 by zombiu26
How water vapor relates to the current global warming / climate change is cause for a lot of confusion. To get an understanding of this topic please click here.
Another thing to note is that even though ocean currents regulate global climate they are not the cause of the rapid Global Warming we are witnessing. El Niño events can combine with background global warming to temporarily increase global temperatures but is not the cause of the current rapid Global Warming. The cause for the recent rapid global warming is human activities, chiefly our greenhouse gas emissions. This in turn alters ocean currents and intensifies El Niño. You can read more about that here.
Another point worth noting is that Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling. You can read more about that here.
I can add that the evolution of new life forms, such as the evolution of Cyanobacteria and Plants, also resulted in significant climate change. In this case massive global ice ages. However, this played out during hundreds of millions of years, not 150 years.
Conclusion
In summary, no known natural causes can explain the current rapid global warming, and this fact is just one of the many pieces of evidence informing us that the current rapid global warming is chiefly due to us burning fossil fuels.
Superfact 142: Matter and anti-matter annihilate upon contact releasing enormous amounts of energy. One gram of anti-matter yields 43 kilotons of energy which is nearly three times the yield of the Hiroshima atomic bomb (15 kilotons). Whenever an interaction creates a matter particle its antimatter counterpart is also created, leading to the mystery of why anything exists at all.
One gram of matter and anti-matter meeting will cause an explosion three times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb. Tiny amounts of anti-matter could cause explosions much larger than large nuclear weapons.
Anti-matter was predicted in 1928 by the physicist Paul Dirac when he combined quantum mechanics with Albert Einstein’s special theory of relativity. A few years later (1932) the anti-particle of the electron, called the positron was discovered. Since then, many anti-particles have been found. For example, scientists have also created anti-protons and anti-atoms, including anti-hydrogen atoms with an anti-proton in the middle with a positron instead of an electron orbiting the anti-proton. Using the particle accelerator at CERN physicist are now able to create thousands of anti-matter atoms in a matter of hours (pun intended). Anti-matter exists, it is all around us, and it falls down in a gravity field (created by matter), just like matter.
When an electron and a positron meet, or another particle and anti-particle meet, they annihilate in a large burst of energy. The particles will turn into photons (light particles). The energy released is determined by Einstein’s formula for energy and mass equivalency E = mc2. This is why one tiny gram of matter and anti-matter can result in an explosion much larger than the 4.5 ton Hiroshima nuclear bomb. An anti-matter bomb, or anti-matter beam, would be the ultimate weapon of mass destruction.
Mass is energy and vice versa, a direct result of the way time and space are related. Stock Photo ID: 2163111377 by Aree_SAnnihilation of a positron (at the top left) and an electron (bottom left) with the release of energy and gamma quanta Shutterstock asset id: 2200151693 by Sergey MerkulovMatter and Antimatter in Modern Physics Shutterstock asset id: 2774510837 by Dream01
The facts that anti-matter exist in the first place, that particles and anti-particles annihilate so extremely violently, as well as other mysteries surrounding anti-matter, such as why there seems to be more matter than anti-matter when they are always created in equal amounts, constitute a super fact (or a few). It is a mind-blowing and important fact.
What is Anti-Matter ?
Anti-matter or anti-particles are often described as particles with the opposite charge of its matter counterpart. For example, an electron and a positron have the same mass, spin, and lifespan (immortal), but their charge is the opposite. A muon and an anti-muon have the same mass (206.77 times the mass of an electron), spin, and lifespan (2.2 microseconds), but their charge is the opposite.
However, it is more than that. Anti-particles are particles for which all external quantum numbers, such as mass, spin, and lifespan, are identical to their matter counterpart, whilst all their internal quantum numbers are reversed including electric charge, the third component of isospin, hypercharge, lepton number, baryon number, upness, downness, charmness, bottomness, and topness. Considering those two last ones are often referred to as beauty and truth, I guess we could call those quantum numbers beautiness and truthiness, but don’t quote me on that.
Perhaps, the most defining characteristics of anti-matter is that a particle will annihilate when it meets an anti-particle. An electron and an anti-muon will not annihilate. Only an electron will do that with a positron, and only a muon will do that with an anti-muon. You can say that an antiparticle is like a mirror image or mirror twin of its corresponding particle. In fact, with respect to the mathematics, an anti-particle can be treated as a normal particle moving backward in time.
Why Does Anything Exist?
As mentioned, matter and anti-matter is always created in equal amounts, which means that an equal amount of matter and anti-matter should have been created in the Big Bang, and subsequently all matter and anti-matter should have annihilated, leading to the question, “Why does anything at all exist?”. Scientists may have started to unravel that mystery.
Anti-matter and matter annihilating each other. Why does anything exist?
A robot philosopher. I generated the picture with the help of ChatGPT.
Today’s daily writing prompt is “What do you think is the future of AI?”. My answer is that “The Future of AI is Superintelligence”. Artificial Intelligence has been very useful for robotics and automation in the past, but the future of AI holds something very different, at least if you look far ahead enough. I’ve spent most of my working life using AI for at least some of my work related projects since the 1990’s. However, the Artificial Intelligence we see today is likely extremely primitive compared to the Artificial Intelligence of tomorrow. In the future it will be very different.
AI Brain Neural Network Supercomputer. Many super brains. Many super capabilities. Shutterstock asset id: 2087062936 by PeachShutterStock
Artificial Intelligence could evolve into intellects that greatly exceed the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, meaning it could render humans essentially useless. Moreover, the Artificial Intelligence of the future is likely to be autonomous, able to make its own decisions, have imagination, agency, and as you will see later in this post, as much “autonomy” as a human. This is not automation in a normal sense. I think it will evolve into something we may not be able to understand.
Artificial intelligence and research concept. Shutterstock Asset id: 2314449325 by Stock-Asso
This is an opinion and not a fact and thus not a super-fact. To explain, most of my posts on this blog are what I refer to as super facts. Facts on important topics that we know are true and yet surprising, mind-blowing, or controversial (but should not be). Therefore, a lot of the super facts are about myth busting. However, as I said, this post is an opinion and a response to the daily writing prompt and not a fact and not a super fact.
The first time I came across Artificial Intelligence was in college, in 1987. In one of my Artificial Intelligence classes I was introduced to a new algorithm, the Rumelhart backpropagation algorithm for neural network learning. David Rumelhart, Geoffrey Hinton, and Ronald Williams introduced it in their 1986 paper, “Learning representations by back-propagating errors”. This is the algorithm that is making modern LLMs, such as Gemini and ChatGPT possible. In 2024 Geoffrey Hinton was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics, and his co-authorship of the famous 1986 backpropagation paper was a core part of the neural network research cited by the Nobel Committee. You can read more about it here.
The dots in the diagram are neurons. With permission from kwholley63.
I should say that back in 1987 we used the Rumelhart backpropagation algorithm for Optical Character Recognition, that is finding and recognizing characters in an image of text. However, our simulated neural network only had a few hundred parameters. Today’s LLMs (Large Language Models, such as Gemini and ChatGPT) have hundreds of billions or even trillions of parameters. Since then, I’ve continued using various forms of Artificial Intelligence. First in my robotics research as a PhD student and later in my professional career. I’ve seen it becoming increasingly sophisticated and capable.
I used mostly the seven joint Robotics Research Corporation Robot for my robotics research in the early 1990’s. The robot was able to detect and avoid colliding with the objects surrounding it. I used echolocation for object detection.
It should be noted that the Artificial Intelligence is not new. The history of artificial intelligence (AI) began in antiquity, with stories of artificial beings. The first artificial neural network model was created in 1943. The Turing test was created in 1950. The field of “Artificial Intelligence Research” was founded as an academic discipline in 1956. The first trainable (able to learn) neural network was demonstrated in 1957.
Shutterstock Asset id: 2645975149
It is obvious that today’s popular large language models, such as Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, etc., are just very primitive precursors of what will come. If Moore’s law continues to hold, the artificial neural networks of the future will have a lot more than a trillion connections. They will have trillions-times-quadrillions of connections. In other words, we have seen nothing yet. Artificial intelligence is already more capable than humans in many fields, and they it is quickly catching up to humans in virtually all categories.
Superintelligence
In September of 2014 there was a book published with the title “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies” published. The author was Oxford professor Nick Bostrom. He has expertise in neuroscience, artificial intelligence and philosophy. His book was a New York Times bestseller that sent shockwaves around the world. He defined Superintelligence as “any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest”. Nick Bostrom was not the first one to use the term Superintelligence, but he popularized it. And no, our President did not come up with that expression, and he is also misusing it.
The front cover of Superintelligence, Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom. Click on the image to go to the Amazon page for the paperback version of the book.
In the book the author described possible pathways to the creation of what he calls a full brain simulation. A full brain simulation is the creation of a computer system that replicates the complete physical architecture, neural pathways, and synaptic connections of a biological brain. A robot, or AI system, featuring a full brain simulation would be able to replicate, or exceed, any human capability, including imagination, independent thinking and initiative, and what we call consciousness. Unless you believe that some sort of immaterial spirit is necessary for our mind, the possibility of this is undeniable. He discussed the potential dangers of this and explained why AI exceeding human capabilities could be dangerous. Robots and AI systems taking every job in existence is just one potential problem.
Two Robots powered by Artificial Intelligence. Shutterstock Asset id: 558350728 by Willrow Hood.
What if Artificial Intelligence evolve into Superintelligence? What if Artificial Intelligent decides to get rid of humans? After all they would be competing with us for resources. Like the fate of animals depends on us, the fate of humankind would depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. We are already in an Artificial Intelligence arms race with China (and other countries). Could we end up with a big unpleasant surprise as the capabilities of Artificial Intelligence keep growing exponentially?
A great movie about AI breaking out of their testing environment is Ex-Machina. Have you seen it?
AI Robots in the Future
What would future AI be capable of? How about robot electricians, plumbers, authors, teachers, poets, artists, therapists, soldiers, robot husbands and wives, robot politicians, robot astronauts, robotic musicians, and robotic philosophers?
Note: I generated the images above with the help of ChatGPT.
