Alien Civilizations and the Fermi Paradox

This is a submission for Kevin’s No Theme Thursday

The AI generated image shows magical rotating things in the sky and an alien civilization below | Alien Civilizations and the Fermi Paradox
Image by Kevin from The Beginning at Last

Kevin’s artistic picture above makes me think of Alien Civilizations. Do they exist? Do they exist in our Galaxy? To quote Enrico Fermi, if they do exist “Where is Everybody?”. That is the famous Fermi Paradox.

A telescope and a background showing the milky way
Did we find an advanced civilization in our Galaxy, which has hundreds of billions of stars?

We have found thousands of exoplanets,  and it is estimated that there are 11 billion potentially habitable Earth-sized planets orbiting stars roughly the same size as the sun in the Milky Way. It is estimated that there are an additional 40 billion potentially habitable Earth-sized planets orbiting red dwarf stars in the Milky Way. Earth is an estimated 4.5 billion years old whilst our Milky Way Galaxy is an estimated to be 13.6 billion years old. Add that there are at least hundreds of billions of Galaxies like the Milky Way in the observable Universe. Yet, human astronomers have not detected any signs of alien civilizations, and there is no evidence Earth has been visited by aliens in the past.

A picture of the Andromeda Galaxy with a bright white light near its center. The bright light is almost outshining the entire galaxy | Alien Civilizations and the Fermi Paradox
It should be noted that even though our Galaxy is 13.6 billion years old, its beginnings were very violent with a lot of supernova explosions, which were necessary for higher elements to come into existence and making life possible. So, we need to count out the first couple of billions of years. This is a supernova explosion in the center of the Andromeda galaxy “Elements of this image furnished by NASA” It is essentially an enhanced photo of a supernova explosion in a neighboring galaxy. Stock Photo ID: 2495486227 by muratart.
Blue and brown Earth like planet with rings.
Exoplanets, we found thousands but there are likely many billion habitable exoplanets in our Galaxy. This is an imagined Earth like exoplanet. Stock Illustration ID: 1440413666 by Dotted Yeti.
A planet surrounded by rings that are hundreds of times wider than the planet | Alien Civilizations and the Fermi Paradox
This is an illustration of a real exoplanet that we’ve found. J1407b is an exoplanet 20 times more massive than Saturn. It has enormous rings and is often referred to as Super Saturn. It may not harbor life. Stock Illustration ID: 2329821675 by Love Employee.

In this context, I would like to mention the Drake equation. The Drake equation is a probabilistic equation used to estimate the number of communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy. It was created in 1961 by American astrophysicist and astrobiologist Frank Drake. This is the equation N = R * Fp * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L. where N is the number of civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy with which communication might be possible.

  • R = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy.
  • Fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets.
  • Ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets.
  • Fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point.
  • Fi = the fraction of planets with life that go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations).
  • Fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
  • L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

We have a pretty good idea of what R * Fp * Ne is but the remaining factors are unknown.

An astronaut is standing on the surface of an alien planet. He is surrounded by giant mushrooms and in the sky, there is a large moon or a planet.
Exoplanet with life Stock Illustration ID: 1524001694 by Dotted Yeti

This is not really a super fact but more of a mystery. The goal of this blog is to create a list of what I call super facts. Important facts that we to be true, and yet they are disputed by many non-experts, or just highly surprising to the general public. However, I also post interesting facts and book reviews in this blog.

Is there Scientific Evidence for Alien Civilizations?

UFO sightings are not proof of alien spacecraft. The term “UFO” or “Unidentified Flying Object”, simply describes something in the sky that a person can’t recognize. Studies by NASA, Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office show that the vast majority of these observations can be attributed to mundane phenomenon. Also, ask yourself, why would an alien civilization fly across interstellar space and only reveal themselves to random people with bad cameras and not to humanity as a whole. Why would they be flying around in little saucers? The typical flying saucer stories are not credible. Some UFO reports are also hoaxes or based on misidentified objects or misinterpretations of natural phenomena.

Grey alien with big black eyes showing peace sign, 3d render | Alien Civilizations and the Fermi Paradox
Alien showing peace sign. Shutter stock asset id: 2245224525 by adike

When I was in the Swedish army I was stationed near the Finnish Swedish border up north, which was close to Murmansk, a big Russian city which had the world’s largest navy base at the time. One night when I looked up in the sky I saw a shiny green elliptical shape in the night sky. It was quite big. I did not know what it was, but a lot of people called in to report it as a UFO. Were we being visited by space aliens as many believed. Some were even certain of it. No, it turned out to be Natrium cloud left behind by an intercontinental missile test launched from the Murmansk naval base.

A black hole with an orange accretion disk is approached by futuristic starship.
Was it a spaceship like this that we saw in the sky? No it was just a boring Natrium cloud left by a Russian missile. This spaceship approaching a black hole was generated by an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system. Stock AI-generated image ID: 2448481683 AI-generated image Contributor Shutterstock AI Generator.

Stories about past visitations are often guesses and conjecture mixed up with misrepresentation and fabrications. These stories are not taken seriously by scientists.  SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) has not found any definitive evidence of alien life. SETI have not detected any signals that convincingly can be attributed to an alien intelligence. In summary, there is no scientific evidence for aliens in the declassified UFO videos, in purported alien bodies, mutilated cows or in anything else.

But why have we not found any traces of alien intelligence? Where is Everybody? That’s the Fermi Paradox.

Solutions to the Fermi Paradox

Interstellar travel and interstellar communication are incredibly difficult. Maybe we should take the fact that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light seriously. You can always speculate about warping space and wormholes but that does not mean such travel is at all physically possible. The distances in the universe are enormous and require thousands or millions of years of travel even at speeds close to the speed of light. Likewise, those distances make communication difficult. Perhaps interstellar travel and communication is too difficult to be worth it.

The so called “Great Filters” hypothesis suggests that advanced civilizations don’t last that long. Maybe they self-destruct in nuclear wars or germ warfare. Perhaps they burn fossil fuels causing severe global warming ending civilization. Maybe AI destroyed their civilization. There could also be a great filter before intelligent life occurs. What if life itself is extremely unlikely to happen.

The “Dark Forest” hypothesis suggests that advanced civilizations are hiding to avoid detection from hostile advanced civilizations. A related idea is that there is a very advanced civilization in our galaxy, which destroys all other civilizations when they become too advanced and a potential threat. If that is true, maybe we shouldn’t advertise our existence using projects like SETI.

Another suggestion is that advanced civilizations are extremely rare because they can only arise under extremely rare conditions. Not only does a planet need to be habitable, but plate tectonics, climate, the shape of continents and oceans all to be just right for intelligent life and advanced civilizations to evolve. Also, consider the fact that intelligent human life existed for hundreds of thousands of years before the rise of civilization. Perhaps we are the only civilization in our Galaxy. Perhaps we are the first civilization in our Galaxy.

Yet another suggestion is that beings that are part of advanced civilizations eventually will escape into a virtual reality world or escape into other alternative worlds.

Here is a video giving an overview of the Fermi Paradox

I would like to end with a famous quote by the famous science fiction writer Arthur C. Clark “There are two possibilities: either we are alone in the Universe, or we are not. Both are equally terrifying,”

So, what do you think? Where is Everybody?

To see the Super Facts click here

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Author: thomasstigwikman

My name is Thomas Wikman. I am a software/robotics engineer with a background in physics. I am currently retired. I took early retirement. I am a dog lover, and especially a Leonberger lover, a home brewer, craft beer enthusiast, I’m learning French, and I am an avid reader. I live in Dallas, Texas, but I am originally from Sweden. I am married to Claudia, and we have three children. I have two blogs. The first feature the crazy adventures of our Leonberger Le Bronco von der Löwenhöhle as well as information on Leonbergers. The second blog, superfactful, feature information and facts I think are very interesting. With this blog I would like to create a list of facts that are accepted as true among the experts of the field and yet disputed amongst the public or highly surprising. These facts are special and in lieu of a better word I call them super-facts.

65 thoughts on “Alien Civilizations and the Fermi Paradox”

    1. Thank you Jacqui. No the Drake equation has not fallen into disrepute and it is kind of important in this context. I just left it out because I thought the post was long enough. But I think I’ll add a paragraph about it later today. I should say it is mentioned in several of the websites I am linking to.

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  2. I think it’s hard for us to appreciate the distances between us and any other habitable planets. In effect, we are alone, even if other intelligent life forms exist somewhere. Thanks for the info about the various theories.

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  3. Such an enigma! I’m convinced there are other life forms in the universe, but as mentioned, communication would likely be impossible, due to the vast distances involved. In October 1968, some friends and I saw a cluster of round glowing balls among the trees, in St. Gallen, Switzerland. No explanation was ever forthcoming, but it sent me off on a quest to learn more about aliens. Then I discovered Erich von Däniken’s “Chariots of the Gods” and totally bought into it. 😆 Of course, that was debunked, but the subject is still fascinating, nonetheless.

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    1. Yes it is easy to forget how vast the distances are. The light speed in vacuum universal constant and speed limit may be impossible to overcome, like the physics says. I remember Erich von Däniken’s book “Chariots of the Gods”. I read it when I was I think ten or eleven years old and I bought into it too. Then I saw a debunking of it on Swedish TV and that was it.

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  5. I never saw green lights on the sky when I was living in Romania, but there were no naval bases near Bucharest either 🙂 Here we see flickering lights in the night sky but we know there’s air traffic overhead.

    I liked that quote you ended on.

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    1. Thank you so much Patricia. Thank you so much Patricia. Yes, between weather balloons, military balloons, other high-altitude balloons, satellites, space stations, the planet Venus, airplanes, drones, sky lanterns, natrium clouds, terrestrial lights causing strange lights because of atmospheric phenomena, interesting cloud formations / lenticular clouds, meteors, lens flares, exhaust plumes, contrails, search lights, space debris, etc., there are so many things that people assume are something extra-terrestrial. That in addition to actual hoaxes.

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  7. Fascinating, Thomas, thank you for sharing this incredible post. As for me, an experience in the early 1970s showed me that we are not alone. A decade later, I began studying near-death experiences and continue that study. My conclusion is that life is far more miraculous and far-reaching than we realize. As a Jesuit priest once said to me, “Why would God only put life on one planet?”

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  9. I’ve thought quite a bit about the Fermi Paradox over the years. I do wonder how easy it actually would be to recognize signs of intelligent life. Questions that aren’t often brought up are how often does intelligent life turn to machine building? Even if intelligent life has taken to the stars, does it communicate in a way we’d recognize as communication? If we do take a leap into the realm of science fiction and imagine a race has figured out a real way to travel faster than the speed of light, it’s likely they have ways of communicating that transcend the speed of light as well and may be undetectable by our current technology. In short, I don’t think the lack of evidence necessarily rules out intelligent life, but it may be harder to find and recognize than we first thought. As Carl Sagan once said, we’ve barely dipped our toe into the vast cosmic ocean. We have a long way to go before we know and appreciate everything that is out there.

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  11. I think the first time I encountered the Dark Forest theory was in the book by the same name in the “Remembrance of Earth’s Past” trilogy (AKA “The Three-Body Problem”). It was very well explained in the book and did not bode well for the inhabitants of Earth who were stupidly broadcasting their presence to everyone in the universe. I’m looking forward to seeing how they handle the Netflix adaptation of this book, which was the best one in the trilogy if you ask me …

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    1. I’ve heard of this book (well these three books) but have not read it. There are so many great books out there and so little time. That is the question, do we really want to broadcast our existence?

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  12. The Great Filter hypothesis doesn’t explain why we don’t receive radio signals from alien civilizations.
    Our radio stations have send signals that already reached dozens of lightyears. They don’t just go back to Earth, they go all the way to distant stars.
    But would the alien radio signals even be detectable? They would travel light years.

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    1. You are right World Questioner. We’ve already sent radio signals out there that have reached dozens of light years away, at the same time you have wonder if they are at all detectable. Voyager 1 being one light day away can detect radio signals from earth but those signals are aimed at voyager 1. Singnals that are light years away and broadcast and not aimed anyone specific may for all practical purposes be entirely gone.

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  13. I believe that there is life on other planets, so I also believe we’re technically not alone as life forms. But as you note, the distances involved may cause that practical result. A person alone in the wilderness with no cell service, roads or other signs of humanity is for all intents and purposes alone, even though there may be hundreds of others only 20 km away. And nearby animal or bird life wouldn’t count, either. So if we look at it that way, the very definition of what we mean by “alone” can get complicated.

    If we think of the conventional notion of other intelligent, spacefaring humanoids with whom we could theoretically communicate, then yes, where are they and why haven’t they visited? It could simply be that yes, for our nearest neighbours the distances are too great, the advancements aren’t yet there or we have been seen – maybe in a cursory way millennia, centuries or decades ago – and it’s been decided that for now, we’re too primitive for contact. Interesting speculation.

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  14. The answer to this question is either the most simple one, or the most complex. We may never know which. As always, Thomas, you have given me much to ponder. Thank you! 🙏

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  16. “why would an alien civilization fly across interstellar space and only reveal themselves to random people with bad cameras” Lol.

    This was a fun one, Thomas. I believe that there is intelligent life on other planets, somewhere, but it’s just not practical or desirable or possible to overlap.

    I find it interesting that earth humans often assume that alien beings would be humanlike in shape, thinking, culture, technology, and values. To me, that’s much more of a stretch than the possibility of other intelligent life in general. Assuming that long-distance space travel is doable, highly intelligent life forms may be far more advanced than we are and wisely keeping their distance while we primitives destroy ourselves.

    Arthur C. Clark’s quote is a wonderful way to end the post. So true!.

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    1. Thank you Diane. Yes you are right. The distances are so enormous that contact with any intelligent life in our galaxy may be too difficult and then intelligent life might be something totally different from us, like you say. I remember reading a science fiction book in which the intelligent life was the ocean of an entire planet, others were gaseous entities, not mention the Thing, and other things we would never recognize or that we could be able to communicate with.

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  20. Thank you, Thomas, for this post on a very interesting topic. I liked the video on Fermi Paradox. Though we are sure of extraterrestrial civilisations, speculating on UFOs, we have not found any conclusive evidence of alien life. Drake Equation is new for me. Thank you for sharing it.

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  26. A fascinating topic and post with interesting theories. My philosophy includes the belief that, if a civilization is truly advanced, it would not want to destroy others, but I can understand how an advanced civilization would not want to reveal itself until we’re ready (like with the Vulcans in
    Star Trek.) In spite of being a long-time science fiction fan, I believe we need to focus on cleaning up our own planet and grow up mentally and emotionally, so we’ll be ready for the next step. That might take a while.

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    1. Those are some interesting and profound thoughts. I have to admit I haven’t watched enough Star-Trek to have realized that about the Vulcans. I certainly agree with you that “we need to focus on cleaning up our own planet and grow up mentally and emotionally”. It is not just to prepare for interaction with the possible existence of other intelligent life, but for the alien intelligence emerging in our midst, AI. According to the historian and philosopher Yuval Noah Hararri, AI will copy our mindset and actions because we are creating AI, and if we cannot get along, AI may end up being our enemy of our own design.

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      1. Good point about AI. I hadn’t thought about that. The movie, Star Trek First Contact may be my favorite. In First Contact, the borg are trying to prevent the Vulcans from making first contact when they see humans have warp drive. The series Star Trek Enterprise which takes place before the classic series shows that many Vulcans were arrogant and found humans annoying.

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