Super fact 52 : Climate change, including increased heat, extended drought, and a thirsty atmosphere, has been a key driver in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the United States, particularly the western United States during the last two decades. The number of Wildfire acres burned in the United States has significantly increased even though the number of wildfires has not. Another important factor is forest management.
To some people this does not come as a surprise. However, due to the complexity of the issue combined with political spin, this is a surprise to me, or even something they refuse to believe. I’ve come across many people who are surprised to hear that there really is a connection between climate change and wildfires in regions of the world which are getting dryer and hotter due to climate change. There are also others who are surprised to hear about the complex picture and the importance of good forest management. In any case, since it is a surprising fact to many, and an important fact, I consider it a super fact.
As super fact 52 above states, Climate change is a key driver in the worsening of wildfires in the US, particularly in the American West. A 2016 study published in PNAS found that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. I can add that we know that Climate Change, or if you call it Global Warming, is Happening and is Caused by us, primarily due to our burning of fossil fuels. I can also add that Scientists Agree that Global Warming is happening and that we are the Cause.
Wildfires and the Complex Statistical Picture
In general, you can’t look at wildfire statistics and draw conclusions without considering the context. Below are some considerations.
- Wildfires are not started by climate change or poor forest management. They are started by lighting, falling powerlines, campfires that are not properly put out, and sometimes by arson. That doesn’t mean that climate change and poor forest management does not increase the risk and extent of wildfires.
- Research organizations such as NOAA recognize that wildfire is a natural part of the western US ecosystem. However, climate change is significantly exacerbating the problem by creating conditions more conducive to intense and widespread wildfires.
- Suppression of fire in certain ecosystems may in fact increase the likelihood that a wildfire will occur.
- There are wildfires started intentionally to prevent future wildfires.
- In the past, forests evolved with frequent, low-intensity fires that helped clear out underbrush. They can have ecological benefits. Therefore, the number of wildfires may not have increased over the last 100 years.
- Local conditions and forest management have evolved through time complicating the wildfire statistics around the world.
- In the past reporting was not always consistent.
That does not mean that we don’t know whether climate change worsens wildfires or not. Research organizations such as NASA, NOAA, NOAA (again), NOAA on LA fires , Ohio University, are all in agreement on the fact that Climate change has been a key driver in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the United States. Other organizations such as AccuWeather, Texas 2036, the Nature Conservancy, IFAW, American Progress, and the New York Times concurs.
Fix Our Forest Act
Climate change is a huge problem that is going to take decades to tackle and the whole world needs to be involved in that effort. However, we can quickly address wildfires here in the US, especially the American West by addressing the other half of the problem, forest management. There is currently a bill in congress called the Fix Our Forest Act that does that. It streamlines and enhances forest management based on the science. In the house of representatives, it has the number H.R.471 and in the Senate it is S.1642.
I was recently in Washington DC to do volunteer lobbying for these bills. You can read about it here.
Super Facts 