Tag: wildfires

Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them

Superfact 126: Climate change worsens wildfires in North America, especially in the western U.S. and Canada, as well as in southern and western Europe, the Arctic and Siberia, Australia, and parts of South America and central Africa. That is because these areas face longer dry spells and rising temperatures due to climate change. However, changes in human land-use, such as farming expansion, and landscape fragmentation in Northern Africa and south Asia have caused the total burned area to decline.

Esther’s writing prompt: August 19th : Fire

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Forest burning wildly. The entire picture is just intense fire. | Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them
Underwood, WAUSA – July 2, 2023: Tunnel 5 Fire in Columbia River Gorge Shutterstock asset id: 2327439537 by Christian Roberts-Olsen

Human-caused global warming is causing longer dry spells and rising temperatures in many areas. This results in larger and more intense wildfires despite improved forest management. This has globally expanded the area burned by 16% (2003 to 2019)

As mentioned, climate change worsened wildfires in North America, especially in the western U.S. and Canada, as well as in southern and western Europe, the Arctic and Siberia, Australia, and parts of South America and central Africa. However, changes in population distribution, land use, forest fragmentation and the conversion of land for urban development and agriculture in particularly south Asia and North Africa have suppressed wildfires, driving down global burned area. The net effect is estimated to be a reduction of the burned area by 5%. You can read more here, or here, or here, or here.

The photo shows tree trunks on fire and professional firefighters extinguishing a large, high-priority part of a forest fire.
Highly skilled hotshot firemen crew working in a challenging remote area with flames reaching the treetops. Shutter stock asset id: 2258645599 by Gorodenkoff

This is an important fact that is also paradoxical. On the one hand climate change / global warming is worsening wildfires. On the other hand, the size of the total area burned by wildfires has declined because of the change of human land use. Those who knew that wildfires are getting worse due to climate change are likely surprised to hear that total area burned by wildfires has declined. Those who use the fact that the total area burned by wildfires has declined to deny that global warming is worsening wildfires might be surprised to learn that they are wrong.

Some Clarification on Wildfires

  • Wildfires are not started by climate change or poor forest management. They are started by lighting, falling powerlines, campfires that are not properly put out, and sometimes by arson. That doesn’t mean that climate change and poor forest management does not increase the risk and extent of wildfires.
  • Research organizations such as NOAA recognize that wildfire is a natural part of the western US ecosystem. However, climate change is significantly exacerbating the problem by creating conditions more conducive to intense and widespread wildfires.
  • Suppression of fire in certain ecosystems may in fact increase the likelihood that a wildfire will occur.
  • There are wildfires started intentionally to prevent future wildfires.
  • In the past, forests evolved with frequent, low-intensity fires that helped clear out underbrush. They can have ecological benefits. Therefore, the number of wildfires may not have increased over the last 100 years.
  • Local conditions and forest management have evolved through time complicating the wildfire statistics around the world.
  • In the past reporting was not always consistent.

Climate change worsens wildfires in the US

Climate change, including increased heat, extended drought, and a thirsty atmosphere, has been a key driver in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the United States, particularly the western United States during the last two decades. The number of Wildfire acres burned in the United States has significantly increased even though the number of wildfires has not. Another important factor is forest management.

The graph consists of blue bars corresponding to a year starting in 1983 with the last bar being 2020. The bars show the number of million acres burned per year in the US. In 1983 and 1984 the bars show between 1 and 2 million acres burned. The following three years more than 2 million acres were burned. From 2015 to 2020 the number of acres burned annually is between 5 and 10 million acres. | Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them
Wildfire acres burned in the United States. Number of acres of wildfire burned in a given year in the United States. This is shown from 1983 onwards, when consistent reporting began. Data source : National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). Presented by OurWorldinData/natural disasters.

You can read more about the increased wildfires in the United States in this superfactful post.

Other super facts related to global warming

My Other Responses to Esther’s Prompts

To see the other Super Facts click here

Climate change worsens wildfires in the US

Super fact 52 : Climate change, including increased heat, extended drought, and a thirsty atmosphere, has been a key driver in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the United States, particularly the western United States during the last two decades. The number of Wildfire acres burned in the United States has significantly increased even though the number of wildfires has not. Another important factor is forest management.

The graph consists of blue bars corresponding to a year starting in 1983 with the last bar being 2020. The bars show the number of million acres burned per year in the US. In 1983 and 1984 the bars show between 1 and 2 million acres burned. The following three years more than 2 million acres were burned. From 2015 to 2020 the number of acres burned annually is between 5 and 10 million acres | Climate change worsens wildfires in the US
Wildfire acres burned in the United States. Number of acres of wildfire burned in a given year in the United States. This is shown from 1983 onwards, when consistent reporting began. Data source : National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). Presented by OurWorldinData/natural disasters.

To some people this does not come as a surprise. However, due to the complexity of the issue combined with political spin, this is a surprise to me, or even something they refuse to believe. I’ve come across many people who are surprised to hear that there really is a connection between climate change and wildfires in regions of the world which are getting dryer and hotter due to climate change. There are also others who are surprised to hear about the complex picture and the importance of good forest management. In any case, since it is a surprising fact to many, and an important fact, I consider it a super fact.

As super fact 52 above states, Climate change is a key driver in the worsening of wildfires in the US, particularly in the American West. A 2016 study published in PNAS found that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. I can add that we know that Climate Change, or if you call it Global Warming, is Happening and is Caused by us, primarily due to our burning of fossil fuels. I can also add that Scientists Agree that Global Warming is happening and that we are the Cause.

Wildfires and the Complex Statistical Picture

In general, you can’t look at wildfire statistics and draw conclusions without considering the context. Below are some considerations.

  • Wildfires are not started by climate change or poor forest management. They are started by lighting, falling powerlines, campfires that are not properly put out, and sometimes by arson. That doesn’t mean that climate change and poor forest management does not increase the risk and extent of wildfires.
  • Research organizations such as NOAA recognize that wildfire is a natural part of the western US ecosystem. However, climate change is significantly exacerbating the problem by creating conditions more conducive to intense and widespread wildfires.
  • Suppression of fire in certain ecosystems may in fact increase the likelihood that a wildfire will occur.
  • There are wildfires started intentionally to prevent future wildfires.
  • In the past, forests evolved with frequent, low-intensity fires that helped clear out underbrush. They can have ecological benefits. Therefore, the number of wildfires may not have increased over the last 100 years.
  • Local conditions and forest management have evolved through time complicating the wildfire statistics around the world.
  • In the past reporting was not always consistent.

That does not mean that we don’t know whether climate change worsens wildfires or not. Research organizations such as NASA, NOAA, NOAA (again), NOAA on LA fires , Ohio University, are all in agreement on the fact that Climate change has been a key driver in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the United States. Other organizations such as AccuWeather, Texas 2036, the Nature Conservancy, IFAW, American Progress, and the New York Times concurs.

The photo shows tree trunks on fire and professional firefighters extinguishing a large, high-priority part of a forest fire.
Highly skilled hotshot firemen crew working in a challenging remote area with flames reaching the treetops. Shutter stock asset id: 2258645599 by Gorodenkoff

Fix Our Forest Act

Climate change is a huge problem that is going to take decades to tackle and the whole world needs to be involved in that effort. However, we can quickly address wildfires here in the US, especially the American West by addressing the other half of the problem, forest management. There is currently a bill in congress called the Fix Our Forest Act that does that. It streamlines and enhances forest management based on the science. In the house of representatives, it has the number H.R.471 and in the Senate it is S.1642.

I was recently in Washington DC to do volunteer lobbying for these bills. You can read about it here.

To see the other Super Facts click here