Tag: Climate Change

The Physics of Climate Change – Review

The goal of this blog is to create a list of what I call super facts. Super facts are important and true facts that nevertheless are surprising to a lot of people, mind-blowing, or misunderstood or disputed among non-experts. They are special facts that we all can learn something important from. However, I also make posts that are not super facts but feature other interesting information, such as this book review and book recommendation. The book is:

The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss

I should mention that Lawrence M. Krauss is a renowned theoretical / particle physicist and cosmologist and not a climate scientist. However, he took a deep dive into the physics of climate change because of its importance. Below I am listing the four versions of this book. I bought and read the paperback version.

  • Hardback –  Publisher : Post Hill Press (March 2, 2021), ISBN-10 : 1642938165, ISBN-13 : 978-1642938166, 208 pages, item weight : 13.6 ounces, dimensions : 5.5 x 0.7 x 8.25 inches. It costs $8.70 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
  • Paperback –  Publisher : Post Hill Press (March 28, 2023), ASIN : B0BTMPFL93, ISBN-13 : 979-8888450925, 208 pages, item weight : 8 ounces, dimensions : 5.5 x 0.6 x 8.25 inches. It costs $15.01 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
  • Kindle –  Publisher : Post Hill Press (January 26, 2021), ASIN : B08P5DK7HB, ISBN-13 : 978-1642938173, 187 pages, it costs $12.99 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
  • Audiobook – Publisher : Primordial Productions INC (January 26, 2021), ASIN : B08R6HT764, Listening length : 4 hours and 53 minutes. $0.00 with membership. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
The front cover features the title and the name of author Lawrence M. Krauss author of The Edge of Knowledge. There is also a recommendation from Elizabeth Kolbert saying, “the ideal book for understanding the science of global warming.” This is on a purple/reddish/brown background with clouds. | The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss Front Cover
The front cover of The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss. Click on the image to go to the Amazon page for the hardback version of the book.

Amazon’s Description of the Book

The first book to briefly and clearly present the science of climate change in a way that is accessible to laypeople, providing the perspective needed to understand and assess the foundations and predictions of climate change.

“Brilliant and fundamental, this is the necessary book about our prime global emergency. Here you’ll find the facts, the processes, the physics of our complex and changing climate, but delivered with eloquence and urgency. Lawrence Krauss writes with a clarity that transcends mere politics. Prose and poetry were never better bedfellows.” —Ian McEwan, Booker Prize-winning author of Solar and Machines Like Me

“Lawrence Krauss has written the ideal book for anyone interested in understanding the science of global warming. It is at once elegant, rigorous, and timely.”—Elizabeth Kolbert, staff writer, The New Yorker, and Pulitzer prize-winning author of The Sixth Extinction

“A brief, brilliant, and charming summary of what physicists know about climate change and how they learned it.” —Sheldon Glashow, Nobel Laureate in Physics, Metcalf Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Boston University

“The distinguished scientist Lawrence Krauss turns his penetrating gaze on the most pressing existential threat facing our world: climate change. It is brimming with information lucidly analysed. Such hope as there is lies in science, and a physicist of Dr. Krauss’s imaginative versatility is unusually qualified to offer it.” —Richard Dawkins, author of The Blind Watchmaker and Science in the Soul

“Lucid and gripping, this study of the most severe challenge humans have ever faced leads the reader from the basic physics of climate change to recognition of the damage that humans have already caused and on to the prospects that lie ahead if we do not change course soon.” —Noam Chomsky, Laureate Professor, University of Arizona, author of Internationalism or Extinction?

“Lawrence Krauss tells the story of climate change with erudition, urgency, and passion. It is our great good luck that one of our most brilliant scientists is also such a gifted writer. This book will change the way we think about the future.” —Jennifer Finney Boylan, author of Good Boy and She’s Not There

“Everything on climate change that I’ve seen is either dumbed down and bossy or written for other climate scientists. I’ve been looking for a book that can let me, a layperson, understand the science. This book does just what I was looking for. It is important.” —Penn Jillette, Magician, author of Presto! and God, No!

“The renowned physicist Lawrence Krauss makes the science behind one of the most important issues of our time accessible to all.” —Richard C. J. Somerville, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

“Lawrence Krauss is a fine physicist, a talented writer, and a scientist deeply engaged with public affairs. His book deserves wide readership. The book’s eloquent exposition of the science and the threats should enlighten all readers and motivate them to an urgent concern about our planet’s future.” —Lord Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal, former president of the Royal Society, author of On the Future: Prospects for Humanity.

This is my five star review for the book The Physics of Climate Change

These Climate Change Physics Lessons will Make You Smarter

The author, Lawrence M. Krauss, is a particle physicist and cosmologist who took a deep dive into climate science, because it is an important topic that is misunderstood amongst the public. He demonstrates conclusively that the very rapid current global warming is indeed happening and is caused by us. He states that “Climate Change, evolution, and the Big Bang are all empirical facts, not speculation.” And that the existence of the greenhouse effect and its theoretical interpretation are by now essentially unimpeachable. He also states that “the basic physics is relatively straightforward and can and should be explained comprehensively to interested bystanders.”

However, this is easier said than done. Physics is hard for people without a physics education and people often underestimate what scientists understand. A famous example of this that is mentioned in this book is when former Fox TV host Bill O’Reilly notoriously claimed that no one knows why the tides happen, when in fact none other than Sir Isaac Newton explained the fundamental physics behind the tides hundreds of years ago. This book features a lot of facts, a lot of detailed explanations of complex systems, a lot of physics, some formulas, diagrams, and actual science. Even though this book is written for lay people it is not easy to read and I had to reread and think about some passages before continuing, despite having a degree in physics.

The author explains the so called carbon cycle, how carbon dioxide gets cycled through Earth’s oceans, mantle, the atmosphere, the biosphere, terrestrial soils, and the reservoirs of CO2 stored in each system and the flow absorption/emission between them. The carbon cycle diagram he provides is probably the most informative I’ve seen. One of the smallest emitters in the diagram are volcanoes, which emit about 1% of what we do by burning fossil fuels and is part of the carbon cycle, which has existed long before we did.

He explains how carbon dioxide emissions form a blanket around the Earth, the so called somewhat misnamed greenhouse effect and how it together with Earth’s overall reflectivity determines Earth’s surface temperature, which would have been 33 degrees Celsius (60 Fahrenheit) colder without the gases in our atmosphere. He explains why certain molecules are greenhouse gases, whilst other gases are not. Oxygen and nitrogen are not greenhouse gases, but carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas whilst water vapor acts like a greenhouse gas.

To explain what is going on he invokes the electromagnetic spectrum and thermodynamics, for example, Stefan-Boltzman’s law, he does some math, examines the incoming and outgoing radiation, the absorption of IR radiation in the atmosphere, how carbon dioxide and water vapor absorb radiation at different frequencies and complement each other. For example, carbon dioxide absorbs IR radiation mostly in the 600 to 700 micrometers and water vapor in other frequencies. And by the way water vapor is not a driver behind global warming.

He explains how we can know past carbon dioxide content as well as global temperatures from ice cores going back 800,000 years. He gives us an overview of the science history of the greenhouse effect and global warming. It is hundreds of years old. For example, in 1896 the Swedish chemist/physicist Svante Arrhenius calculated pretty accurate numbers for how much the average global temperature would rise depending on how much carbon dioxide we are emitting, and roughly how the warming would distribute across the globe (not evenly). However, the author points out that calculating the average global temperature rise or environmental damage from the size our emissions is a very complicated task that not even complex models can do perfectly well.

One thing we can calculate very easily and accurately is radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is defined as the change in total radiation power (in watts per square meter) emitted by Earth into space as some quantity like the CO2 abundance. In the formula below C is the abundance of carbon dioxide and C0 is the initial abundance of carbon dioxide, and ln is the natural logarithm and Delta-P is the change in power, again in watts per square meter. (+/- 0.5) is the margin of error.

Radiative forcing Delta-P = 5.35 (+/- 0.5) ln(C/C0) Watts per meter square.

In addition, the book discusses the melting of land ice, Greenland, the different ice sheets in Antarctica, the distribution of temperature changes across Earth and across the atmosphere, potential tipping points, the potential future ill effects of global warming, including future sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of land ice (not sea ice). He states that under high emissions CoastalDEM (a study) indicates up to 630 million people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100.

In this review it seems like I’ve given a lot of detail regarding the content of the book. However, it is still just a small sample. The book is short, at less than 200 pages, but it has a lot of interesting content, perhaps even in depth content. It is well written and well organized, and Lawrence M. Krauss is a great popularizer of science. I’ve read other physics books by him. By giving some details about the content, I wanted to give potential readers an idea of what to expect and prepare them for the fact that this book is written for laymen at the same time as it is not easy reading. Please read it carefully and try to understand the content. If you can do that then I highly recommend it for you. The book will make you much smarter.

The back cover of The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss features advance praise for the book. The text is on a purple/reddish/brown background.
The back cover of The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss. Click on the image to go to the Amazon page for the paperback version of the book.
To see the Super Facts click here

Carbon Cycle Emissions Does Not Cause Global Warming

Superfact 128: There are a lot of natural carbon emissions from the soil, rotting plants, animal and human respiration, and oceans, and a small amount from volcanoes. However, carbon is also absorbed by the oceans, and by plants via photosynthesis, etc., and this creates a balance that has existed for many thousands of years. This is called the carbon cycle. Despite the fact that the carbon emissions from our burning of fossil fuels are much smaller than some of the naturally occurring carbon emissions mentioned, they are what is behind the increase of carbon in the atmosphere because they are a new addition that disrupts the carbon cycle.

The carbon cycle in the picture shows that the terrestrial biosphere is absorbing 120 Gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere and emits 60 Gigatons to the atmosphere. It also adds 60 Gigatons of carbon to terrestrial soils. It also shows the Surface of the Ocean both emitting and absorbing 90 Gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere and both emitting and absorbing 90 Gigatons of carbon to the deep ocean. There are additional flows in the picture. It is complex but stable cycle. | Carbon Cycle Emissions Does Not Cause Global Warming
The picture above was drawn by me and is an adaptation of Figure 3.1 on page 31 in the book “The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss”.

Regarding the picture above, the units are in Gigatons of carbon, i.e. the weight of the carbon atom. To get the numbers in Gigatons of carbon dioxide multiply all numbers by 3.67. The numbers in yellow inside the blocks correspond to how much carbon is stored in the system. The numbers without units in the grey arrows correspond to the number of Gigatons of carbon per year. I can add that Lawrence M. Krauss is not a climate scientist but a prominent theoretical physicist focusing on cosmology and quantum physics. However, he took a deep dive into the physics of climate change.

This picture is the same as above with the addition of our recent carbon emissions at 10 Gigaton. Oceans and other systems are absorbing some of it resulting in a net increase of 5 Gigaton per year.
This is the same picture as above, but I added the contribution from our recent additional carbon emissions such as the emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. This is depicted at far right in yellow. Since this is not part of the original carbon cycle the amount of carbon in the atmosphere grew from 600 Gigatons (pre-industrial) to 900 Gigatons.

As you can see in the picture above the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere was 600 Gigaton originally and now we have increased it to 900 Gigaton. We are adding 10 Gigatons of carbon from our emissions, chiefly from burning fossil fuels, which correspond to 37 Gigatons of carbon dioxide. About half of this is absorbed by the ocean and other systems, resulting in a net addition of 5 Gigatons per year. The carbon dioxide added and stored in the atmosphere will be there for hundreds or thousands of years.

The existence of the carbon cycle and how it explains what is going on is an important fact that is widely misunderstood and therefore a surprising fact. You quite often see or hear claims such as “animal and human respiration emit a lot more carbon dioxide than our burning of fossil fuels, and therefore human caused global warming is BS”. The first part of that sentence is true, but the rest ignores the carbon cycle and the balance that has existed for many thousands of years. Therefore, this is a super fact.

The diagram shows how carbon is emitted and absorbed between the various elements in nature and our planet. It shows animals, plants, the soil, and also emissions from factories. The text says “The Carbon Cycle is important because it helps keep the right amount of carbon in the air, water, and soil. Too much carbon in the air can cause problems for our Earth and its climate.” | Carbon Cycle Emissions Does Not Cause Global Warming
This illustration of  the Carbon Cycle is simplified but artistic. Shutterstock asset id: 2271978649 by GraphicsRF.com

More on the Carbon Cycle

This picture is the same as the one above where I included our recent emissions from burning fossil fuels.
Same as the picture above but notice the flows depicted by the arrows and the total amounts stored in each system.

The carbon cycle describes the process in which carbon atoms continually travel from the atmosphere to the Earth and then back into the atmosphere. In the picture above you can see that the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere, and the soil, as well as deep Earth reservoirs and Marine Carbonate Sediments are all absorbing and emitting carbon (dioxide). For example, the terrestrial biosphere absorbs 120 Gigatons of carbon per year, chiefly through photosynthesis, and emits 60 Gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere, via for example, animal / microbial / human respiration, rotting plants, and it adds another 60 Gigatons of carbon to terrestrial soils. 120 Gigatons of carbon correspond to 440 Gigatons of carbon dioxide.

This is a fairly detailed picture of the carbon cycle from wikipedia. | Carbon Cycle Emissions Does Not Cause Global Warming
Carbon cycle schematic showing the movement of carbon between land, atmosphere, and oceans in billions of tons (gigatons) per year. Yellow numbers are natural fluxes, red are human contributions, and white are stored carbon. The effects of the slow (or deep) carbon cycle, such as volcanic and tectonic activity are not included. Diagram adapted from U.S. DOE, Biological and Environmental Research Information System., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

The carbon cycle was relatively stable until we started burning massive amounts of fossil fuels. Our burning of fossil fuels emits 10 Gigatons of carbon (37 Gigatons of carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere. About 30% of this carbon is absorbed by the oceans. This slows the warming but causes ocean acidification, which is another dangerous problem. In total 50% of the carbon emissions are absorbed by oceans, the soil, the biosphere, etc., according to “The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss”. This is why I wrote Net 5 Gigatons per year in the picture above. You can read more about the Carbon Cycle here and here.

Another thing to pay attention to in the diagrams above is that not only are volcanoes part of the carbon cycle, but their contribution to carbon emissions is tiny compared to our emissions, which contradicts the many false claims you see on social media. You can read about that in my post “Volcanoes emit a tiny fraction of carbon compared to humans”.

Conclusion

Many of our Planet’s systems (oceans, biosphere, terrestrial soil, atmosphere, etc.) emit (and absorb) more carbon dioxide than our burning of fossil fuels does. However, the fact that they are part of the long existing carbon cycle makes them irrelevant to the rapid and sudden global warming phenomenon that we are witnessing. The recent rapid Global Warming is happening, and it is caused by us, chiefly because of our burning of fossil fuels. I am illustrating this using the two bathtub pictures below.

The picture shows a glass bathtub half filled with water. There are a faucet and a drain with the same flow keeping the water level the same.
The stream of water from the faucet is the same as the stream from the drain keeping the water level steady. The bathtub is half full and stays half full. I generated the picture with the help of ChatGPT.
The picture shows a glass bathtub half filled with water. There are a faucet and a drain with the same flow keeping the water level the same. | Carbon Cycle Emissions Does Not Cause Global Warming
The stream of water from the faucet is faster than the stream from the drain so the water level increases. The additional amount from the faucet represents the carbon emissions we added. The bathtub is now 2/3 up and rising. I generated the picture with the help of ChatGPT.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here

Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them

Superfact 126: Climate change worsens wildfires in North America, especially in the western U.S. and Canada, as well as in southern and western Europe, the Arctic and Siberia, Australia, and parts of South America and central Africa. That is because these areas face longer dry spells and rising temperatures due to climate change. However, changes in human land-use, such as farming expansion, and landscape fragmentation in Northern Africa and south Asia have caused the total burned area to decline.

Esther’s writing prompt: August 19th : Fire

Click here or here  to join in.

Forest burning wildly. The entire picture is just intense fire. | Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them
Underwood, WAUSA – July 2, 2023: Tunnel 5 Fire in Columbia River Gorge Shutterstock asset id: 2327439537 by Christian Roberts-Olsen

Human-caused global warming is causing longer dry spells and rising temperatures in many areas. This results in larger and more intense wildfires despite improved forest management. This has globally expanded the area burned by 16% (2003 to 2019)

As mentioned, climate change worsened wildfires in North America, especially in the western U.S. and Canada, as well as in southern and western Europe, the Arctic and Siberia, Australia, and parts of South America and central Africa. However, changes in population distribution, land use, forest fragmentation and the conversion of land for urban development and agriculture in particularly south Asia and North Africa have suppressed wildfires, driving down global burned area. The net effect is estimated to be a reduction of the burned area by 5%. You can read more here, or here, or here, or here.

The photo shows tree trunks on fire and professional firefighters extinguishing a large, high-priority part of a forest fire.
Highly skilled hotshot firemen crew working in a challenging remote area with flames reaching the treetops. Shutter stock asset id: 2258645599 by Gorodenkoff

This is an important fact that is also paradoxical. On the one hand climate change / global warming is worsening wildfires. On the other hand, the size of the total area burned by wildfires has declined because of the change of human land use. Those who knew that wildfires are getting worse due to climate change are likely surprised to hear that total area burned by wildfires has declined. Those who use the fact that the total area burned by wildfires has declined to deny that global warming is worsening wildfires might be surprised to learn that they are wrong.

Some Clarification on Wildfires

  • Wildfires are not started by climate change or poor forest management. They are started by lighting, falling powerlines, campfires that are not properly put out, and sometimes by arson. That doesn’t mean that climate change and poor forest management does not increase the risk and extent of wildfires.
  • Research organizations such as NOAA recognize that wildfire is a natural part of the western US ecosystem. However, climate change is significantly exacerbating the problem by creating conditions more conducive to intense and widespread wildfires.
  • Suppression of fire in certain ecosystems may in fact increase the likelihood that a wildfire will occur.
  • There are wildfires started intentionally to prevent future wildfires.
  • In the past, forests evolved with frequent, low-intensity fires that helped clear out underbrush. They can have ecological benefits. Therefore, the number of wildfires may not have increased over the last 100 years.
  • Local conditions and forest management have evolved through time complicating the wildfire statistics around the world.
  • In the past reporting was not always consistent.

Climate change worsens wildfires in the US

Climate change, including increased heat, extended drought, and a thirsty atmosphere, has been a key driver in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the United States, particularly the western United States during the last two decades. The number of Wildfire acres burned in the United States has significantly increased even though the number of wildfires has not. Another important factor is forest management.

The graph consists of blue bars corresponding to a year starting in 1983 with the last bar being 2020. The bars show the number of million acres burned per year in the US. In 1983 and 1984 the bars show between 1 and 2 million acres burned. The following three years more than 2 million acres were burned. From 2015 to 2020 the number of acres burned annually is between 5 and 10 million acres. | Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them
Wildfire acres burned in the United States. Number of acres of wildfire burned in a given year in the United States. This is shown from 1983 onwards, when consistent reporting began. Data source : National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). Presented by OurWorldinData/natural disasters.

You can read more about the increased wildfires in the United States in this superfactful post.

Other super facts related to global warming

My Other Responses to Esther’s Prompts

To see the other Super Facts click here

Volcanoes emit a tiny fraction of carbon compared to humans

Superfact 125: Volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion metric tons annually. Human emissions are roughly 60 to 100 times greater than all global volcanic output combined. Thus, volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming.

A black and orange colorful illustration of an erupting volcano. | Volcanoes emit a tiny fraction of carbon compared to humans
Volcano – An active volcano that erupts lava. Stock Illustration ID: 2497156167 by MERT1995

Have you ever seen claims on social media such as “a single volcanic eruption release as much CO2 as all of humanity has to date? Or 100 times as much? Or 10,000 times as much? As Snopes explains this is of course nonsense. I’ve seen this kind of claim many times and I’ve seen in the comment sections that a lot of people fall for them. That makes me wonder about people’s critical thinking skills as well as Facebook’s alleged fact checking.

As the super-fact above states, volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion to 38 metric tons annually. Thus, volcanoes emit only a small fraction of CO2 compared to what we do burning fossil fuels. Which also means that volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming. You can read more about this here, or here, or here, or here.

The graph shows human emissions exceeding that of volcanoes around 1870 and then rising rapidly.
Human carbon missions (green line) vs. emissions from volcanic eruptions (purple line). Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Burton et al., 2013.

The graph above compares human carbon emissions (green line) with carbon emissions from volcanic eruptions (purple line). Human carbon emissions (the burning of fossil fuels and cement production) correspond to 35 billion metric tons annually while volcanic emissions are less than one ton annually. The graph is based on data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Burton et al., 2013.

Since so many people so quickly believe the disinformation, this fact should be surprising to a lot of people, and it is kind of important. Therefore, I consider it a super fact.

How do Volcanoes Affect Climate?

The emissions from volcanoes and their effect on climate are complicated. A large volcanic eruption can result in a lot of carbon emissions during a short period of time, but that typically does add up to being substantial in comparison to our annual anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, volcanic emissions include other gases that are not greenhouse gases, particularly Sulphur dioxide, which acts like an aerosol reflecting sunlight. This results in a more noticeable effect, but it is not a warming effect, but a cooling effect.

Long story short, when a volcano has a massive explosion, it shoots sulfur dioxide gas high up into the stratosphere, it mixes with water to make tiny liquid drops that reflect sunlight away from Earth. This causes global temperatures to drop for one to three years. In addition, to some global cooling volcanic eruptions can deplete Earth’s Ozone layer. However, as mentioned the amount of carbon dioxide released from volcanic eruptions is negligible compared to our emissions from burning fossil fuels.

The schematic shows a volcano and how different gases, such as CO2, SO2, HCL, HF, water vapor, etc., affect the atmosphere. | Volcanoes emit a tiny fraction of carbon compared to humans
Schematic of volcanic eruption. cflm, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. Schematic taken from this page.

How did Volcanoes Affect Climate in the past?

It has been proposed that intense volcanic release of carbon dioxide in the deep geologic past did cause global warming back then, and possibly some mass extinctions. This is a topic of scientific debate. However, whether these eruptions caused global warming or not, their intensity and the circumstances under which they happened were much different from today.

Unlike the single eruptions that cool the Earth with ash and sulfur today, these rare ancient eruptions were giant outpourings that lasted hundreds of thousands of years, or millions of years, and overwhelmed the planet’s natural carbon cleanup systems. Instead of coming from a single mountain peak, the magma poured out of giant cracks, or fissures, in the earth.

The Permian-Triassic extinction or the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 56 million years ago is thought to possibly have been such an event. It could also have been that volcanic eruptions caused the sudden release of methane hydrates from ocean sediments.

Ten erupting volcanoes and in between them are cracks pouring out lava and lava flowing in the valleys. | Volcanoes emit a tiny fraction of carbon compared to humans
Luckily, we don’t have this problem today. We are not 250 million years ago. I made this picture with the help of ChatGPT.

A Couple of Videos and Links

The video below is a short one-minute overview of the causes behind global warming.

The video below from NASA is a bit longer, 13 minutes, but it gives a more detailed overview. Click here to see the page from where this is coming from.

Conclusion

This is my third post in the series about natural causes of climate change that we know are not the cause of the current rapid global warming / climate change (I use both words interchangeably). The fact that no known natural cause for climate change can explain the current rapid global warming is just one small piece of the evidence. However, it is a piece that people tend to get stuck on a lot. You often hear claims such as “climate has always changed”. “I think it is a natural cause”.

Unlike the sun and orbital cycles carbon emissions from erupting volcanoes would warm the lower atmosphere while cooling the upper atmosphere, just like our burning of fossil fuels does, and the warming would distribute in time and geography in a similar way. However, we know that the carbon emissions from volcanoes are relatively tiny compared to the emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

In addition, isotope studies show that the origin of the greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere are from burning fossil fuels. This is referred to as the isotopic footprint. These two reasons are how we know that it cannot be volcanoes that are causing the current rapid warming. Here is an additional long list of answers to common questions and objections to human caused global warming.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here

The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming

Superfact 124: The Sun is not the cause of current global warming. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen significantly. The current warming is driven by human-made greenhouse gases, not changes in the Sun.

A thin yellow line graph (on black background) shows the sun’s irradiance fluctuating every 11 year. However, it does not go up overall, but it rather goes down even though the red line graph showing temperature rises sharply. | The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming
Solar irradiance (yellow) plotted with temperature (red) since 1880. NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

The graph above compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun’s energy received by Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square meter since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious. You can read more about why the Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming, here or here or here.

The sun from space on a dark background. High quality photo.
Elements of this image furnished by NASA. Shutterstock asset id: 2454170413 by Artsiom P

The evidence that the current rapid global warming is chiefly caused by our burning of fossil fuels is extensive and for all practical purposes conclusive. Explaining why no known natural cause for climate change can explain the current warming is just one small piece of the evidence. However, it is one item that people tend to get stuck on. You often hear claims such as “climate has always changed”, “I think it is a natural cause, like the sun”, or “have you ever heard of orbital cycles?”.

Well, as one would expect, the scientists and the experts on past climate, and the scientific organizations around the world, have very carefully investigated whether natural causes could be behind the current rapid warming and we have known for many decades that the answer is no. It is not orbital cycles, it is not the sun, it is not volcanoes, etc. My first post in the series regarding why no known natural cause of climate change can explain the current warming was “Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming”. This post is about why it can’t be Sun.

The picture shows a bright shining down on planet Earth lighting up the planet a bit. The light from the sun is intense. | The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming
Sun shining down on Earth. Shutterstock asset id: 2709145593 by buradaki

One reason we know that it can’t be orbital cycles causing the current rapid global warming is that orbital cycles operate over tens of thousands of years or hundreds of thousands of years. That is not true for the sun, which has much faster fluctuations. However, it is true for both orbital cycles and the sun that they are not increasing the heat Earth receives. In fact, the effects of Orbital Cycles are slowly cooling Earth, not warming it, and the sun’s energy output has not shown any net increase.

In addition, if the current global warming was the sun or orbital cycles then the upper atmosphere would be warming just like the lower atmosphere, but the upper atmosphere is not warming, it is cooling. That’s an effect that is similar to a blanket holding heat in, which would happen if greenhouse gases were warming the Earth. Add to that the fact that the distribution of temperature increases in time and space matches the way greenhouse gases warm the Earth but does not match the way the sun or orbital cycles would warm the Earth.

A bright white sun is setting over Earth
Sunset from the International Space Station by NASA

I am considering this a super fact because a lot of people have been fooled by disinformation to believe that natural causes are the likely explanation. About 15-20 years ago, I was bamboozled by the disinformation myself. Since this is an important topic and this fact is likely surprising or even challenging to many people, it is a super fact in my opinion.

Understanding a topic and understanding the evidence makes all the difference. Something I had to relearn. That is also why climate scientists are near unanimous around the world over that climate change / global warming is both real and caused by us.

Past Climate the last 150,000 Years

The graph shows the temperature since the last ice age. There is a maximum temperature about 6,000 years ago, then a cooling and then a sharp uptick in temperature.
This graph shows global temperature going back twenty thousand years. Notice the relatively stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization. Also notice the maximum temperature around 6,000 years ago. It is referred to as the Holocene climatic optimum. Finally, notice the sudden sharp increase in temperature at the end. It is depicted in red and is not natural.
The graph shows wild swings over the last 150,000 years and then a very sharp uptick at the end. | The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming
Temperature record for the last 150,000 years. Again, notice the sharp uptick towards the end. This picture is taken from this article.

A Couple of Videos and Links

The video below is a short one-minute overview of the causes behind global warming.

The video below from NASA is a bit longer, 13 minutes, but it gives a more detailed overview. Click here to see the page from where this is coming from.

You can read some more about why it isn’t sun that is causing the current global warming here, and here, or here.

Conclusion

We know that the Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because the Sun’s energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase.

We know that Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because if it was the Sun the upper atmosphere would not be cooling and the temperature increases would be distributed differently across Earth and distributed differently with respect to time.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here