Climate Change – Super Facts

Natural Causes Cannot Explain the Current Rapid Global Warming

Superfact 143: Climate Change has been happening for billions of years, and it had nothing to do with us humans. However, the experts on past climate are telling us that the current rapid global warming, or if you call it climate change, or climate disruption, is not natural but is caused by us. Understanding why they say this is crucial to understanding what is going on with climate.

The graph shows the temperature since the last ice age. There is a maximum temperature about 6,000 years ago, then a cooling and after that there is a sharp uptick in temperature during the last 100 years. | Natural Causes Cannot Explain the Current Rapid Global Warming — Global temperature from 20,000 BCE until now. Notice the relatively stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization. Also, notice the slight cooling followed by the very sharp increase in average global temperature at the end.

The sharp spike in the global average temperatures towards the right side of the graph above is caused by us humans, chiefly by our burning of fossil fuels. A very common objection to this claim is “Climate has always changed”, or “I think it is a natural cycle”, etc. Such statements dismiss out of hand the expertise of the scientists who are the experts on past climate and natural causes for climate change. They are nearly unanimously stating that natural causes cannot explain the current rapid global warming, and it is obvious why if you look at the evidence.

To quote Katherine Hayhoe, a well-known climate scientist : “Hi, I’m a climate scientist. You may know me from my greatest hits including, “No, it’s not a natural cycle,” “Yes, I know it’s been warmer before (and the only reason YOU know this is because we scientists told you so)”

The evidence that we humans are the cause for the current rapid global warming is certainly not limited to the fact that no known natural cause of climate change can explain the current global warming. There is plenty of direct evidence that we are the cause. However, the fact that we know that no natural cause of climate change can explain the current warming is obviously news to nearly half of the American public and therefore an important and surprising fact by itself. It is a super fact. The faulty assumption that the current rapid warming is “natural” prevents many from trying to understand the evidence that show that we are responsible for it.

Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming

One type of important type of climate forcing that’s been the cause behind the multiple ice ages that we’ve had over the last two million years are earth’s orbital cycles, or the Milankovitch cycles. There are primarily three orbital cycles, orbital eccentricity, change in axial tilt, and axial precession. Could they be responsible for the recent climate disruption and sudden warming?

Three illustrated orbital cycles. On the left orbital eccentricity, in the middle is the axial tilt and on the right axial precession. — Illustration of Milankovitch cycles from MIT’s Climate Primer.

Changes in Eccentricity

Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle. Earth’s orbit varies from nearly circular to slightly elliptical and this change can cause climate change. This shift in Earth’s orbit takes place over periods of about 100,000 and 400,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of Earth’s eccentricity.

Changes in Obliquity (Tilt)

The angle Earth’s axis of rotation is tilted as it travels around the Sun is known as obliquity. Obliquity is why Earth has seasons. Over the last million years, it has varied between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees with respect to Earth’s orbital plane. The greater Earth’s axial tilt angle, the more extreme our seasons are. In addition, a larger tilt angle favor periods of deglaciation. The changes of Earth’s obliquity have a period of 41,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of the changes in obliquity.

Axial Precession (Wobble)

Earth wobbles slightly as it rotates, like a slightly off-center spinning top. The axis of Earth’s wobble changes slowly and is called axial precession. The corresponding cycle spans 25,771.5 years, or approximately 26,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of the changes in axial precession.

Why Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming

The reasons Earth’s Orbital Cycles cannot be responsible for the recent sharp uptick in average global temperature, and the associated climate disruption, are for example:

The changes in Earth’s eccentricity take place over 100,000 to 400,000 years, The changes of Earth’s obliquity have a period of 41,000 years and Earth’s Wobble cycle is around 26,000 years. These cycles are hundreds of times longer than the sudden uptick in temperature that we are witnessing today.
NASA and other organizations keep track of these cycles, and they are causing a slow cooling, not a sudden warming. Obviously, the cause for the rapid warming must be something else.
Depending on what is causing a climate forcing the climate change / warming will happen in different ways. The different types of climate forcing have different fingerprints if you will. For example, we are seeing a “blanket effect”. The lower atmosphere is warming while the upper atmosphere is cooling as if the atmosphere is acting like a blanket. That is greenhouse gases, not orbital cycles or the sun.

To read more about why orbital cycles are not the cause of the current Global Warming click here.

The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming

The Sun is not the cause of current global warming. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen significantly. The current warming is driven by human-made greenhouse gases, not changes in the Sun.

A thin yellow line graph (on black background) shows the sun’s irradiance fluctuating every 11 year. However, it does not go up overall, but it rather goes down even though the red line graph showing temperature rises sharply. — Solar irradiance (yellow) plotted with temperature (red) since 1880. NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

The graph above compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun’s energy received by Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square meter since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious. You can read more about why the Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming, here or here or here.

The sun from space on a dark background. High quality photo. — Elements of this image furnished by NASA. Shutterstock asset id: 2454170413 by Artsiom P

In summary, the fluctuations in the sun radiance are much quicker than the orbital cycles. However, we still know that the Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because the Sun’s energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. We also know that Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because if it was the Sun the upper atmosphere would not be cooling and the temperature increases would be distributed differently across Earth and distributed differently with respect to time. That’s the blanket effect again.

To read more about why the sun is not the cause of the current Global Warming click here.

Volcanoes emit a tiny fraction of carbon compared to humans

Volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion metric tons annually. Human emissions are roughly 60 to 100 times greater than all global volcanic output combined. Thus, volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming.

A black and orange colorful illustration of an erupting volcano. | Natural Causes Cannot Explain the Current Rapid Global Warming — Volcano – An active volcano that erupts lava. Stock Illustration ID: 2497156167 by MERT1995

There are some wild and false claims on social media claiming that “a single volcanic eruption release as much CO2 as all of humanity has to date” Or even much more than that. As Snopes explains this is nonsense. As mentioned, volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion to 38 metric tons annually. Thus, volcanoes emit only a small fraction of CO2 compared to what we do burning fossil fuels. Which also means that volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming. You can read more about this here, or here, or here, or here.

The graph shows human emissions exceeding that of volcanoes around 1870 and then rising rapidly. — Human carbon missions (green line) vs. emissions from volcanic eruptions (purple line). Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Burton et al., 2013.

To read more about why volcanoes cannot be the cause of the current Global Warming click here.

Carbon Cycle Emissions Does Not Cause Global Warming

There are a lot of natural carbon emissions from the soil, rotting plants, animal and human respiration, and oceans, and a small amount from volcanoes. However, carbon is also absorbed by the oceans, and by plants via photosynthesis, etc., and this creates a balance that has existed for many thousands of years. This is called the carbon cycle. Despite the fact that the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are smaller than some of the naturally occurring carbon emissions mentioned, they are what is behind the increase of carbon in the atmosphere because they are a new addition that disrupts the balance.

The carbon cycle in the picture shows that the terrestrial biosphere is absorbing 120 Gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere and emits 60 Gigatons to the atmosphere. It also adds 60 Gigatons of carbon to terrestrial soils. It also shows the Surface of the Ocean both emitting and absorbing 90 Gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere and both emitting and absorbing 90 Gigatons of carbon to the deep ocean. There are additional flows in the picture. It is complex but stable cycle, except for the addition on the right (indicated in yellow). The addition of our recent carbon emissions is 10 Gigaton. Oceans and other systems are absorbing some of it resulting in a net increase of 5 Gigaton per year. — The flow of carbon between the different carbon reservoirs is in balance, until we add the human contribution shown in yellow. Since this is not part of the original carbon cycle the amount of carbon in the atmosphere grew from 600 Gigatons (pre-industrial) to 900 Gigatons. Note that 10 tons of carbon correspond to 37 tons of carbon dioxide. The picture above was drawn by me and is an adaptation of Figure 3.1 on page 31 in the book “The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss”.

You can read more about the carbon cycle and our recent human additions by clicking here. The explanations in that post are also better and more detailed.

Additional Points on Climate Change

Another related but different issue that confused a lot of people is the role of water vapor. Water vapor is responsible for roughly half of Earth’s total greenhouse effect, but only as an amplifier of what is caused by carbon emissions. Unlike carbon dioxide or methane, water vapor condenses and falls as precipitation. Water molecules only stay in the atmosphere for about two weeks. We do not directly control global water vapor levels. When carbon dioxide warms the planet the atmosphere holds more water vapor, which amplifies the initial warming. However, water vapor does not drive global warming. Carbon dioxide emissions and to a lesser degree methane emissions drive global warming.

The picture shows a river flowing into the see (labeled collection), evaporation from the sea and transpiration from the land. The condensation creates clouds and it rains (precipitation). | Natural Causes Cannot Explain the Current Rapid Global Warming — Illustration of simple water cycle diagram. Water vapor, a greenhouse gas, is added to the atmosphere from evaporation (the sea) and transpiration (soil, plants, etc.) Then it condenses into clouds and comes down as precipitation. It collects in rivers, etc., and ends up in oceans and lakes. – Shutterstock asset id: 2524245337 by zombiu26

How water vapor relates to the current global warming / climate change is cause for a lot of confusion. To get an understanding of this topic please click here.

Another thing to note is that even though ocean currents regulate global climate they are not the cause of the rapid Global Warming we are witnessing. El Niño events can combine with background global warming to temporarily increase global temperatures but is not the cause of the current rapid Global Warming. The cause for the recent rapid global warming is human activities, chiefly our greenhouse gas emissions. This in turn alters ocean currents and intensifies El Niño. You can read more about that here.

Another point worth noting is that Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling. You can read more about that here.

I can add that the evolution of new life forms, such as the evolution of Cyanobacteria and Plants, also resulted in significant climate change. In this case massive global ice ages. However, this played out during hundreds of millions of years, not 150 years.

Conclusion

In summary, no known natural causes can explain the current rapid global warming, and this fact is just one of the many pieces of evidence informing us that the current rapid global warming is chiefly due to us burning fossil fuels.

Other super facts related to global warming

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Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling

Superfact 140: Naturally occurring climate change caused by Earth’s orbital cycles (Milankovitch cycles) would currently result in a slight long-term cooling trend. Other natural causes of climate change such as solar activity, volcanic trends, and other sources of carbon emissions do not increase Earth’s average global temperature. In addition, reductions in Ozone depleting gases have a cooling effect. Our fossil fuel emissions are the cause for the current sharp increase global temperature as well as for it not getting colder.

The graph shows the temperature since the last ice age. There is a maximum temperature about 6,000 years ago, then a cooling and then a sharp uptick in temperature. | Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling — Global temperature from 20,000 BCE until now. Notice the Holocene Thermal Maximum around 6,000 years ago and the relatively stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization. Pay special attention to the sudden sharp increase in average global temperature at the end.

The sharp spike in global average temperatures towards the right side of the graph above is caused by us humans, chiefly by our burning of fossil fuels. However, the rest of the graph corresponds to natural causes of climate change. The wild swings in the average global temperature during the ice ages are chiefly caused by Earth’s orbital cycles, the so called Milankovitch cycles. <<Link-1>> There are three main Milankovitch cycles:

Changes in Earth’s orbital eccentricity, with 100,000 year cycles.
Changes in obliquity or axial tilt, with a 41,000 year cycle.
Axial precession or wobble, with a 26,000 year cycle.

The Milankovitch cycles cool Earth, and the sun, climate oscillations and ocean currents, volcanoes and emissions part of the carbon cycle do not cause any significant global warming in the long run. In addition, reductions in Ozone depleting gases have a cooling effect and so does our emissions of aerosols. In other words, if it weren’t for our carbon emissions Earth would be getting colder. I believe this is a surprising and important fact and therefore a super fact.

Milankovitch Cycles

Several scientists, astronomers and organizations around the world keep track of the orbital cycles including NASA, NOAA, etc. The Milankovitch cycles explain the ice ages, but these cycles are too long to explain the recent one or two century spike in average global temperatures. Furthermore, the Milankovitch cycles would currently slowly cool the atmosphere not warming it.

The graph shows wild swings over the last 150,000 years and then a very sharp uptick at the end. | Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling — Temperature record for the last 150,000 years. Orbital cycles are the main cause for these swings but not the temperature spike at the end. This picture is taken from this article.

In addition, different causes for climate change leave behind different fingerprints in how the heat is distributed across time, seasons, atmospheric layers, and geography. The “fingerprint” of the current warming is that of greenhouse gases being the cause for it and not orbital cycles. For example, the upper atmosphere is cooling an effect caused by the “blanket effect” caused by greenhouse gases. You can read more about how the current rapid global warming is different from past ice age temperature swings here.

To read more about the Milankovitch cycles click here.

The Sun Does Not Contribute to Global Warming

The sun cannot explain the average increase in global warming either. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s, in fact it is at its lowest in over a hundred years, and again the sun has the wrong “fingerprint”. You can read more about this here.

Volcanoes and Other Natural Sources of Carbon Emissions Do Not Contribute to Global Warming

Human emissions are roughly 60 to 100 times greater than all global volcanic output combined. In addition, volcanoes are part of the carbon cycle which has been stable for a long time. Thus, volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming. You can read more about this here.

The graph shows human emissions exceeding that of volcanoes around 1870 and then rising rapidly. | Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling — Human carbon missions (green line) vs. emissions from volcanic eruptions (purple line at bottom). Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Burton et al., 2013.

There are a lot of natural carbon emissions from the soil, rotting plants, animal and human respiration, and oceans, and a small amount from volcanoes. However, carbon is also absorbed by the oceans, and by plants via photosynthesis, etc., and this creates a balance that has existed for many thousands of years. This is called the carbon cycle. Even though the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are smaller than some of the naturally occurring carbon emissions, it is the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels that are behind the increase of carbon in the atmosphere because they are a new addition that disrupts the carbon cycle.

Conclusion

Orbital cycles, so called Milankovitch cycles, changes climate naturally but they are in a cooling phase. The sun is cooling a bit. Reductions in Ozone depleting gases have a cooling effect and aerosol particle pollution has a cooling effect.

Climate variability, climate oscillations, climate currents affect climate and are important to climate and are affected by global warming, but they are not the cause behind the recent rapid global warming.

Volcanoes and carbon emissions that are part of the carbon cycle are not adding to the carbon in the atmosphere. However, carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels do. If we didn’t burn fossil fuels Earth would be cooling.

Note : this does imply that our carbon emissions is a good thing. The rapid global warming we are witnessing is a very dangerous problem.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here

El Nino or Ocean Currents are not the Cause of Global Warming

Superfact 136: Ocean currents regulate global climate but are not the cause of the rapid Global Warming we are witnessing. El Niño events can combine with background global warming to temporarily increase global temperatures but is not the cause of the current rapid Global Warming. The cause for the recent rapid global warming is human activities, chiefly our greenhouse gas emissions. This in turn alters ocean currents and intensifies El Niño.

El Niño vs Normal Year Ocean Circulation Diagram with Trade Winds, Walker Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Vector Illustration. | El Nino or Ocean Currents are not the Cause of Global Warming — El Niño vs Normal Year Ocean Circulation Diagram. Trade winds are steady, prevailing winds that blow from east to west across the Earth’s tropical and subtropical regions near the equator The Walker Circulation is a large system of air movement near the equator in the Pacific. The air rises in the west pacific and sinks in the east pacific.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon caused by the weakening or reversal of the trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño and the corresponding cooling phase, La Niña, is also called the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is referred to as climate variability rather than climate change because the variations in climate are on shorter specific time scales, like a cycle. Other climate variability / cycles are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

El Niño temporarily spikes global temperatures and makes the impacts of global warming worse. It is important to understand that natural climate variability and cycles like El Niño are not the cause behind the rapid global warming / climate change that we have witnessed over the last 150 years.

The picture shows a severely flooded suburban street with cars floating around. | El Nino or Ocean Currents are not the Cause of Global Warming — A suburban street underwater. El Niño supercharges weather events leading to heavier floods among other things. I made this picture with the help of ChatGPT.

However, human-caused global heating from burning fossil fuels is making El Niño events stronger. Rising global background temperatures make a warmer atmosphere hold more water vapor. When El Niño happens on top of long-term climate change, it supercharges weather events leading to heavier floods, worse droughts, stronger heatwaves, and severe wildfires. Studies show that El Niño events are more than 36% stronger than they were before the industrial era began, with an acceleration in recent decades. This year we are expecting an extra strong El Niño. You can read more about that here and here.

The picture shows a typical world map but with the various ocean currents marked with red or blue. — Map of ocean currents. Shutterstock asset id: 2664465531 by Designua

The ocean and ocean currents are affecting climate. The oceans store heat from the sun and ocean currents help distribute the heat and regulate climate. However, even though ocean currents affect the rate of global warming they are not driving it. Global warming of surface air temperature is as mentioned largely due to increases in greenhouse gases, which lead to increased radiative heat fluxes toward Earth’s surface. You can read more here and here.

I have not come across many claims that specifically states that climate variabilities such as El Niño is what is causing the recent rapid global warming. However, I’ve seen many dismissive comments stating that it is just some sort of cycle (the unknown cycle). Comments such as “climate has always changed”, or “it is natural” are based on the mistaken assumption that scientists haven’t investigated natural causes for climate change. Therefore, I consider it a super fact.

What is not Causing the Recent Rapid Global Warming

This is my sixth and last post in the series about natural causes of climate change that we know are not the cause of the current rapid global warming / climate change. The fact that no known natural cause for climate change can explain the current rapid global warming is just one small piece of the evidence. However, it is a piece that people tend to get stuck on a lot. You often hear claims such as “climate has always changed”. “I think it is a natural cause”. To recap, these are the previous posts.

Superfact 122: We know that the current global warming, or if you call it Climate Change, or Climate Disruption, is caused by us primarily because of our burning of fossil fuels. It is not “natural causes”, and it is not orbital cycles, so called Milankovitch cycles. These orbital cycles include changes in orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and axial precession. We know that Orbital Cycles are not responsible for the current rapid global warming because Orbital Cycles operate on tens of thousands of years or hundreds of thousands of years, not a couple of centuries. We know that Orbital Cycles are not responsible for the current rapid global warming because the effects of Orbital Cycles are slowly cooling Earth, not warming it. The way the warming happens is also wrong for orbital cycles.

Superfact 124: The Sun is not the cause of current global warming. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen significantly. The current warming is driven by human-made greenhouse gases, not changes in the Sun.

Superfact 125: Volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion metric tons annually. Human emissions are roughly 60 to 100 times greater than all global volcanic output combined. Thus, volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming.

Superfact 128: There are a lot of natural carbon emissions from the soil, rotting plants, animal and human respiration, and oceans, and a small amount from volcanoes. However, carbon is also absorbed by the oceans, and by plants via photosynthesis, etc., and this creates a balance that has existed for many thousands of years. This is called the carbon cycle. Despite the fact that the carbon emissions from our burning of fossil fuels are much smaller than some of the naturally occurring carbon emissions mentioned, they are what is behind the increase of carbon in the atmosphere because they are a new addition that disrupts the carbon cycle.

Superfact 133: Water vapor is responsible for roughly half of Earth’s total greenhouse effect, but unlike carbon dioxide or methane, water vapor condenses and falls as precipitation. Water molecules only stay in the atmosphere for about two weeks. We do not directly control global water vapor levels. When carbon dioxide warms the planet the atmosphere holds more water vapor, which amplifies the initial warming. However, water vapor does not drive global warming. Carbon dioxide emissions and to a lesser degree methane emissions drive global warming. Water vapor just amplifies the effect.

Conclusion

Super facts related to global warming

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The Most Important Greenhouse Gas Does Not Drive Global Warming

Several transparent water molecules floating around on a blue background. The atoms in the molecules look like glass balls. | The Most Important Greenhouse Gas Does Not Drive Global Warming — Water vapor is water in gaseous form, and it is invisible. This is a 3D illustration of a water molecule (H2O – two hydrogen atoms and one Oxygen atom). Shutterstock asset id: 1656757654 by Anusorn Nakdee

On social media you often see the claim that water vapor is a more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and the implicit implication is supposedly that our carbon emissions are not the problem. Alternatively, since water vapor has been around forever and is a more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, global warming can’t be caused by greenhouse gases. What is getting lost in these posts is that we are not adding water vapor to the atmosphere like we are adding carbon dioxide (or methane) to the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere will increase because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, but that is because of our carbon emissions in the first place. You can read more about that here, and here, and here.

A related fact is that the water cycle is a relatively fast cycle compared to the carbon cycle. A water molecule stays in the atmosphere on average for two weeks according to MIT and nine days according to Wikipedia. Our carbon emissions stay in the atmosphere for several hundred years. In short, water vapor is not the driver of the current rapid global warming. That is chiefly carbon dioxide, but also methane, and deforestation.

It does not matter that water vapor causes a larger percentage of the warming than carbon dioxide. It is not what is causing the increase in the average global temperature. Since so many people have been fooled by the water vapor misdirection, incorrectly thinking that carbon dioxide is unimportant because water vapor is a more important greenhouse gas, this is an important fact that will come as a surprise to many. Therefore, it is a super fact in my opinion.

More on the Water Cycle and the Greenhouse Effect

Below is a more detailed illustration of the water cycle for those who are interested. It should be noted that even though water vapor is not driving the rapid global warming we are witnessing, the very rapid global warming we are experiencing is affecting the water cycle, for example, the precipitation patterns around the world. You can read more about that here.

This detailed illustration of the water cycle shows the different fluxes and pools that are part of the water cycle. The percentages and circulation patterns are shown. | The Most Important Greenhouse Gas Does Not Drive Global Warming — Water cycle showing human influences and major pools (storages) and fluxes. This is a more detailed picture than the one above. LangeLeslie and Anna Wright, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. This picture is taken from here.

Another less simplistic argument based on water vapor as a greenhouse gas that tries to claim that carbon dioxide is not behind the rapid global warming we are seeing is that water vapor is such an effective greenhouse gas across all frequences that there is not much room for carbon dioxide to make it worse.

Greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation and that is what warms the atmosphere like a blanket. However, the different greenhouse gases absorb radiation at different frequencies. As you can see in the figure below water vapor has a pretty impressive spread across most frequencies.

However, if you look carefully, you see that carbon dioxide and water vapor complement each other in the spectra and in addition, as mentioned, we are not increasing water vapor directly, but we are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide directly. It should be noted that, in addition, satellite measurements directly confirm that our emissions are warming the planet. The topic of absorption at different frequencies by carbon dioxide and water vapor is explored in greater detail in the book “The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss”, which I reviewed here.

The illustration below shows the physical drivers of global warming that have happened so far. Carbon dioxide is a physical driver that will keep growing. Notice that water vapor is not listed. Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas but is not a physical driver of the rapid global warming that we are witnessing.

Aerosols are included and they tend to have a cooling effect rather than a warming effect. Therefore, many people are suggesting to, for example, use Sulphur dioxide to cool the atmosphere and counter global warming. The problem with that is that it is just a different type of pollution that has other negative effects, such as acid rain, it causes breathing difficulties and has other kinds of effects on climate that are not necessarily plain cooling effects. This is a hotly debated issue. — The absorption bands of Earth’s atmosphere (grey color) delimit its atmospheric windows (middle panel) and the effect they have on both down going solar radiation and upgoing thermal radiation emitted near the surface is shown in the top panel. The individual absorption spectra of major greenhouse gases plus Rayleigh scattering are shown in the lower panel. This figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohde Д.Ильин: vectorization (File:Atmospheric Transmission-ru.svg); Cepheiden translation back to english, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. This figure below is taken from this website.

The diagram shows the physical drivers for global warming including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halogenated gases, nitrogen oxides, and other gases. It also shows the effect of aerosols, particularly Sulphur dioxide, which is often the opposite. | The Most Important Greenhouse Gas Does Not Drive Global Warming — Physical drivers of global warming that have happened so far. Future global warming potential for long-lived drivers like carbon dioxide emissions is not represented. Whiskers on each bar show the possible error range. Eric Fisk, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. The illustration is taken from this site.

Conclusion

Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas but unlike carbon dioxide and methane it is not driving the rapid global warming that we are seeing. We are directly increasing water vapor via water vapor emissions, and if we did it would just come raining back down pretty quickly. However, when carbon dioxide warms the planet the atmosphere holds more water vapor, which amplifies the initial warming.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here

Review of Green American Style

The goal of this blog is to create a list of what I call super facts. Super facts are important and true facts that nevertheless are surprising to a lot of people, they are mind-blowing or misunderstood or disputed among non-experts. They are special facts that many of us can learn something important from or perhaps challenge us. However, I also make posts that are not super facts but feature other interesting information, such as this book review and book recommendation. The book is:

Green, American Style: Becoming Earth-Friendly and Reaping the Benefits by Anna M. Clark

Below I am listing the two editions on Amazon of this book. I bought the paperback version.

Hardback – Publisher : BakerBooks (January 1, 2010), ISBN-10 : 1616643242, ISBN-13 : 978-1616643249, item weight : 1.01 pounds. It costs $10.95 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
Paperback – Publisher : BakerBooks (April 1, 2010), ISBN-10 : 0801013348, ISBN-13 : 978-0801013348, 253 pages, item weight : 10.9 ounces, dimensions : 5.25 x 0.5 x 8.25 inches. It costs $4.99 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.

The front cover of Green, American Style: Becoming Earth-Friendly and Reaping the Benefits by Anna M. Clark. Click on the image to go to the Amazon page for the hardback version of the book.

Amazon’s Description of the Book

Americans of all stripes are finding their footing in the green movement. What was once a road less traveled is quickly becoming a superhighway as those who were once reluctant find that going green is not about giving up. It’s about gaining more money, time, opportunity, health, and well-being even as we preserve the American lifestyle in a rapidly changing world. Green, American Style is a guide to going green and loving it. Its uniquely American perspective means it speaks to readers from their own paradigm, taking into account the largely conservative values of much of this country, its democratic and capitalistic history, and its resistance to reining in.

More than a list of ways to reduce, reuse, and recycle, this book explores the green movement from the diverse perspectives of business, faith, and lifestyle, recognizing the economic, physical, and spiritual benefits of sustainable living.

This is my five star review for the book Green, American Style

Save Money Become Healthier and Save the Planet too

The author, Anna Clark, is the founder and President of the company EarthPeople LLC. In this book she presents hundreds of ways companies and citizens can become more environmentally sustainable, while becoming healthier and save money at the same time. Becoming “green” does not have to be a great sacrifice, and you don’t need to adopt a certain environmentalist attitude, or politics. There are practical advantages to you personally as you adopt a greener lifestyle. She refers to this as the green advantage. She is also stating that Green is patriotic. It is our best chance to preserve our way of life for the future.

Climate Change / Global Warming is happening, and the scientific evidence clearly shows that we are the cause. We know it is not natural. Unfortunately, a lot of people have a negative emotional reaction to this reality. Instead of arguing about this issue, and risking turning off some readers, the author focuses on the positives of sustainability and the things we can all agree on. Sustainability is not a political decision but a better way to live.

She is also not an all-or-nothing advocate. For example, she says that you can eat less meat, but you don’t need to become a vegan if that is not what you want. I can add to that that the average American eats 220 pounds of meat per year, which corresponds to 330 million tons of carbon emissions, or 5-6% of our total emissions in the US. If you eat 110 pounds of meat instead of 220 pounds of meat you have removed 50% of those emissions. If you go from eating 10 pounds of meat per year to being vegan you’ve reduced only 3%. All-or-nothing is hard and there are so many other ways that you can reduce your impact on the environment. You choose what fits you and reaching for the low-hanging fruit is smart.

At the same time, she does not shy away from the problems. She mentions the danger of being so dependent on oil, not the least considering national security, and the need for developing alternatives, preferably clean energy sources. She discusses freshwater scarcity, the world losing species at a rate thousands of times faster than the natural extinction rate, and the dangers of excessive carbon dioxide levels. She discusses the many toxins in our environment and how to avoid them.

In the book she describes her interviews and interactions with several important personalities in sustainability including the billionaire and oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens and the billionaire and CEO Roger Barnett. She advocates for eco-capitalism and for LEED certified buildings. She herself lives in a platinum level LEED certified residence. The book features a lot of resources and hundreds of links, and the second part of the book lists 85 easy ways to save the planet and money at the same time. It is not that strange. If you save energy and gasoline, and you waste less and you don’t buy things you don’t really need, you’ll save the planet and money too. In fact, you can easily save thousands of dollars. You may not know how to do that, but the book will tell you.

She also lists 25 ways to remodel your home to make it greener and saving energy. I found that we have already done several of the things listed. She also discusses gardening and composting. I can add that she correctly states that EVs not only save you gas money, but they are significantly cleaner than regular cars even with dirty grids. Due to some untrue rumors, there is some confusions about that. I can add that EVs has come a long way since this book was published.

The author also talked about the environmental studies program at St. Marks School of Texas, the school our boys attended. We live next to that school. This was more of a fun and for me personal portion of the book. The book also features some warnings. When you go shopping, there are third party-verification labels and non-specific generic labels that don’t mean anything such as “natural”, “cage free”, and “free range”. Be a smart shopper.

In summary, this book may be a bit old, but it contains a lot of useful and helpful information that is still relevant today. Therefore, I highly recommend it to everyone. You certainly don’t have to be an environmentalist to put the advice in the book to practice and save some money, become a bit healthier and save the planet at the same time.

The back cover of Green, American Style: Becoming Earth-Friendly and Reaping the Benefits by Anna M. Clark. Click on the image to go to the Amazon page for the paperback version of the book.

About the Author

Photo of Anna M. Clark author of Green, American Style. There is also summary describing her. "Anna Clark is president of EarthPeople (www.earthpeopleco.com), a consulting and communications firm that helps organizations of all sizes save money and bolster their brands through profitable green strategies. A featured blogger for Greenbiz.com and SustainLane.com, Anna writes on topics ranging from green living to leadership. Anna lives with her family in Dallas in one of the first residences in Texas to earn a platinum LEED-certified rating from the US Green Building Council."

Anna Clark is president of EarthPeople (www.earthpeopleco.com), a consulting and communications firm that helps organizations of all sizes save money and bolster their brands through profitable green strategies. A featured blogger for Greenbiz.com and SustainLane.com, Anna writes on topics ranging from green living to leadership. Anna lives with her family in Dallas in one of the first residences in Texas to earn a platinum LEED-certified rating from the US Green Building Council. For the more on all things green, visit www.annamclark.com.

Click below to visit her web sites.

https://www.annamclark.com

https://www.earthpeopleco.com