The Extinction Rate is Much Higher Than the Natural Baseline Rate

Super fact 71 : Based on the fossil record today’s extinction rate is hundreds, or even thousands, of times higher than the natural baseline rate.

Animals included in the watercolor painting include Teratorm, Mammoth, Macrauchenia, Glyptodon, Smilodon, and Andrewsarchus. | The Extinction Rate is Much Higher Than the Natural Baseline Rate
Collection of watercolor prehistoric and now extinct animals isolated on a white background. Hand painted illustration of Ice Age. Asset id: 2169205593 by Ekaterina Glazkova

Estimating the extinction rate is a complicated task that requires some assumptions and estimations. This article from the National Library of Medicine use what it claims to be conservative estimates, which would tend to minimize evidence of an emerging mass extinction. Despite that fact the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 100 times higher than the extinction rate without/before humans (background rate). Other sources claim an extinction rate that is 1,000 or even 10,000 the background rate.

To put some specific numbers on what a high extinction rate means, scientists count 881 animal species are known to have gone extinct since around 1500. If we include animal species that scientists suspect might be extinct, that number shoots up to 1,473. You can read more on the issue here or here or here.

A black and white photo of Two Tasmanian Tigers. The Tasmanian Tigers had stripes on their back.
Two Tasmanian Tigers. The Tasmanian Tiger or Thylacine was hunted to extinction. Benjamin, the last Tasmanian Tiger, died in 1936 in the Beaumaris Zoo in Tasmania. Baker; E.J. Keller., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

What is clear is that the current extinction rate is much higher than what is typical and we humans are the cause. This came as a shock to me the first time I found out about it, and it is certainly an important topic, and therefore a super fact. It is true, surprising to many, and important.

Those who want to minimize the problem with the ongoing extinctions often point out that extinctions are a natural part of evolution and that throughout Earth’s history up to around 98% of all species that have ever existed are now extinct. In my opinion, that argument fails to consider the enormity of Earth’s four billion year natural history. A lot of evolution happened during that time.

Modern humans have only been around 300,000 years, or 0.0075% of that time, a tiny blip in time. Human civilization has only been around for 12,000 years, or 0.0003% of that time, an even tinier blip in time. Like comparing an ant head to a mile. Us having a large negative impact on the natural world in such an extremely short time is quite notable.

By considering the extinction rate you get a better idea of the scope of the problem. The fact that the extinction rate today is significantly higher than the expected natural rate and that the primary cause of modern extinctions is human impact as opposed to natural phenomena, makes it a case for concern. To read about a related issue, “The Wild Mammal Biomass Has Substantially Declined”, click here.

The color photo shows a close up of a giant tortoise. | The Extinction Rate is Much Higher Than the Natural Baseline Rate
Lonesome George at the Charles Darwin Research Station in 2006, the last known individual of his species of Galápagos tortoise. https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikeweston/, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0&gt;, via Wikimedia Commons

The Five Past Mass Extinction Events

Over the last 440 million years life on Earth has experienced five so called mass extinctions. A mass extinction event is when at least 75% of the world’s species are lost during a short period of time – geologically speaking. This period is not clearly defined but often defined to be two million years. Two million years may seem like a long time, but geologically speaking, it is a short time.

3D illustration showing two carnivorous dinosaurs and two large herbivores looking up at a burning asteroid.
Extinction of the dinosaurs when a large asteroid hits earth 66 million years ago. It was the last mass extinction event. Asset id: 2196200279 by funstarts33

The five mass extinction events were:

Below is an overview of the five big mass extinctions in Earth’s history. The graph is from Our World in Data.

The graph shows extinction rates going up and down with five tall peaks representing mass extinction events.
The Big Five Mass Extinctions in Earth’s History. A mass extinction is defined by the loss of at least 75% of species within a short period of time (geologically, this is around 2 million years). Extinctions are a natural part of evolution, but background rates are typically less than 5 families extinct per million years. Sources Barnosky et al (2011). Howard Hughes Medical Institute: McCallum (2015). Vertebrate biodiversity losses point to a sixth mass extinction. From Our World in Data.
A stunning AI generated illustration of a woolly mammoth standing on a snowy landscape during a vibrant sunset with northern lights in the sky. | The Extinction Rate is Much Higher Than the Natural Baseline Rate
Are We in the Middle of a Sixth Mass Extinction ?
A Glyptodon walking across an empty prairie.
3D illustration of a Glyptodon, also extinct, Asset id: 495169627

Biodiversity experts have estimated that about 30% (uncertainty range: 16–50%) of species have been globally threatened or driven to extinction since the year 1500. 30% globally threatened or extinct is not 75% that are actually extinct, but in just 500 years that looks like a quick start on a mass extinction. It should be noted that 500 years is just 0.025% of two million years. Issues such as deforestation, chiefly the result of replacing forests with agriculture, overexploitation, and global warming / climate change are driving extinctions and represent big biodiversity threats in the near future.

A northern white Rhino is grazing green grass at a zoo.
The Northern white rhino subspecies, the second-largest land mammal after elephants, has no hope of recovery after the last male died in 2018. Only a female and her daughter are left. The photo is of Angalifu, a male northern white rhinoceros at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park. Angalifu died of natural causes at the age of 44 on 14 December 2014. Sheep81, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

This is why there is talk about the so called Holocene or Anthropocene extinction and it possibly being a sixth mass extinction, this one being human caused. It should be noted that there are credible sources that question whether we are at the cusp of a sixth mass extinction event.

Posting this on Thanksgiving Day may seem awkward. However, whether there will be a human caused sixth mass extinction or not depends on us, and it looks like more people want to protect our natural world. Many animals, such as the giant panda, bald eagle, the sea otter, black footed ferret, the Peregrine falcon, the blue whale, Rodrigues fruit bat, the Island night lizard, and the California condor, have been saved from extinction through conservation efforts like habitat restoration, anti-poaching laws, captive breeding programs, and reintroduction to the wild. Perhaps we are turning things around. We should give thanks to all who care.

To see the other Super Facts click here

Unknown's avatar

Author: thomasstigwikman

My name is Thomas Wikman. I am a software/robotics engineer with a background in physics. I am currently retired. I took early retirement. I am a dog lover, and especially a Leonberger lover, a home brewer, craft beer enthusiast, I’m learning French, and I am an avid reader. I live in Dallas, Texas, but I am originally from Sweden. I am married to Claudia, and we have three children. I have two blogs. The first feature the crazy adventures of our Leonberger Le Bronco von der Löwenhöhle as well as information on Leonbergers. The second blog, superfactful, feature information and facts I think are very interesting. With this blog I would like to create a list of facts that are accepted as true among the experts of the field and yet disputed amongst the public or highly surprising. These facts are special and in lieu of a better word I call them super-facts.

47 thoughts on “The Extinction Rate is Much Higher Than the Natural Baseline Rate”

  1. We humans seem to do so much damage wherever we go and it’s usually driven by greed and/or power. Then there are those who continue to deny that climate change is even real. That said, I agree with your last paragraph. I hope we are getting better at living respectfully with other species.

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

    1. Thank you so much Lynette. Climate change denial seem to be very strange. The evidence overwhelming. People are easy to bamboozle. However, once upon a time I doubted it myself because I did not know much about it and it was a political thing. I only paid attention to right wing media and I got fooled. Then I took a deep dive into the topic and realized it was real and we were the cause and there was not any doubt about it. However, the young generation seems to smarter about these issues and positive things have happened.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  2. I’ve heard the argument that we’re in the sixth great extinction. One person can’t change the world, but one person can change their behavior. That’s all. Does it matter? I don’t know.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. You are right Denise. One person may not make a big difference but many individuals do. It seems like we are now doing better. Maybe a sixth mass extinction will be averted. Well, we’ll know in two million years, or sooner.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    1. Yes I hope you are right Maggie. There are a lot of clueless people who don’t care about the environment and the natural world. However, looking at what we have done over the last five decades it looks like we are turning things around and that the anti-climate change crowd are loosing.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  5. Another animal being saved from extinction by captive breeding and human help is the Vancouver Island marmot. The population is now about 400, after being reduced to only 30 individuals a few decades ago.

    On the whole, though, I’m constantly distressed by what a destructive species we humans are. It’s almost as though we evolved in a different world and arrived in this one that is not adapted to us. That’s a science fiction scenario, but it has an appeal.

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

    1. That science fiction scenario sounds like the begining of an intriguing story. I’ve read some so called cli-fi novels, science fiction novel with a climate change theme and they were good books. It is new popular genre. I am glad to hear about the recovery of the Vancouver Island Marmot. We’ve lost a lot but lately there’s been many success stories.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  6. There have been big forward steps taken to save African Savannah elephants and giraffes from continuing to decline in numbers, Thomas. Sadly, with some species like African painted dogs the battle is being lost. Black rhinos are also extremely rare. I have had the extreme good fortune to see both of these creatures in the wild

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. There’s been some success stories but unfortunately some species losses. At least some people are trying to do something about it now. I am very grateful for your wonderful books, poems and art raising the issues and respect for the natural world.

      Like

      Reply

    1. Lulu that is so cool. I would have loved to see and feed Angalifu. What a special experience. I don’t think our dog Rollo would mind to be the last dog in the world. He doesn’t like other dogs very much. However, in general being the last of your species is kind of sad.

      Like

      Reply

  10. As always, a fascinating post. As it turns out extinction events are among my daughter’s primary interests in geology. She’s studied sharks, which have survived every mass extinction event in the planet’s history since they first appeared. However their numbers are declining rapidly now and there’s a chance they may go extinct during the anthropocene. She would like to find clues about their survival through other mass extinction events with hopes of determining how they, along with other species, might survive the antropocene. Wishing you a happy Thanksgiving. I’m especially thankful for science and rational thought.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Thank you so much David. It sounds very interesting what your daughter is studying. That sounds like a great topic to study in science. I wish her all the very best of success. I hope she finds some clues. I wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving as well and I am also especially thankful for science and rational thought.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  12. Human overpopulation is to blame for these animals going extinct since 1500. If the population only grew to say, 2 billion, not nearly as many animals would go extinct.
    The Earth’s human population limit is at least ten billion, perhaps 12 billion.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Yes you are right World Questioner. It is very difficult to do anything about our large population. However, we could for example eat less red meat. There are 1.5 billion cattle, which considering their size is even larger than the human biomass. At the same time as the biomass of wild animals have severly declined. I’ve read that the United Nations estimate that the global human population is projected to reach its maximum of just under 10.3 billion in 2084. Then it will decline. For the sake of wildlife I hope it will not be much more than that.

      Like

      Reply

      1. The world would be happier if the human population was just 2 billion.
        If the world population declined, it would be worth having fewer kids or more people not having kids at all.
        Many Americans are no longer getting married, in particular Millennials, and Millennials that do get married are voluntarily childless. This could lead to a population decline in the future of the Unitetd States.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Yes more than half the world’s countries have a birth rate below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, not just the US. That is why the UN says the world population will come to a maximum around 2084. You are right, we are probably too many and it causes harsher competition for resources and is a burden on the environment and wildlife. 2 billion people seems like a more reasonable number. But we are going to have to wait. However, as the population growth stalls and begin to decline young people are going to have take care of more elderly. On the other hand, maybe robots could do that.

          Like

          Reply

  13. I’m not surprised that humans are the cause of this trend. I’ve heard about this since the 70s ecology movement. But there’s still hope, and I’ll try to do what I can, in my small ways, to minimize the risk. Thank you for shining a light on the truth we need to face.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Thank you so much JoAnna. I am not surprised that you are not surprised. You know this stuff. However, there are people who do not know and even people who deny it. But like you I am hopeful. There’s been a lot of damage done but many people have taken action, like you say. It looks like things are turning around.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  14. Fascinating and sobering. We are very poor stewards of our home planet. There are just too many humans competing for too few resources… something’s gotta (and will) give. Great post, Thomas 😎👏

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. I have to admit I don’t know much about it but I know Lions are considered vulnerable but not yet endangered. However, I just looked it up and the West African lion subpopulation is critically endangered, Thank you for your comment radiokenya.com.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  16. Well-written and deeply thought-provoking! I had heard about the five major mass extinctions in Earth’s history, but I had no idea that scientists now warn of a potential sixth one.

    Recently, I read a study about the Laysan Albatross, a species listed as near threatened globally. One heartbreaking reason for their decline is that mother birds often mistake floating plastic for food and unknowingly feed it to their chicks, leading to sickness and death. It ultimately shows how human activity is destroying our planet.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. That is very sad about Laysan Albatross. It is still early to tell but the very high extinction rate leads many scientists to believe that we humans are in the process of causing a sixth mass extinction, while others are saying that recent efforts to save species shows otherwise. A sixth mass extinction due to us would be really bad, but hopefully we won’t get there.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  17. Thank you for this eye-opening piece. You helped us see that the beauty of our world stands dangerously close to loss. Each line gently reminds us not to turn away from other beings who share this home. I hope more hearts awaken before everything becomes too late.

    We often forget that when a species disappears, a long story of evolution also fades away. Every creature has an irreplaceable role in this shared planet. Small actions such as protecting habitats, reducing unnecessary consumption, or supporting conservation policies are humble ways to make a real difference.

    You subtly whisper that there is still time, as long as we choose to act and care. Thank you for restoring our respect for life. May the hope you cultivate grow into collective action—saving more beings and preventing a dark chapter in our planet’s history.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  19. Pingback: Oxygen Blue Sky and Complex Life Exist Because of a Bacteria – Super Facts

Leave a comment