The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming

Superfact 124: The Sun is not the cause of current global warming. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen significantly. The current warming is driven by human-made greenhouse gases, not changes in the Sun.

A thin yellow line graph (on black background) shows the sun’s irradiance fluctuating every 11 year. However, it does not go up overall, but it rather goes down even though the red line graph showing temperature rises sharply. | The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming
Solar irradiance (yellow) plotted with temperature (red) since 1880. NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

The graph above compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun’s energy received by Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square meter since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious. You can read more about why the Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming, here or here or here.

The sun from space on a dark background. High quality photo.
Elements of this image furnished by NASA. Shutterstock asset id: 2454170413 by Artsiom P

The evidence that the current rapid global warming is chiefly caused by our burning of fossil fuels is extensive and for all practical purposes conclusive. Explaining why no known natural cause for climate change can explain the current warming is just one small piece of the evidence. However, it is one item that people tend to get stuck on. You often hear claims such as “climate has always changed”, “I think it is a natural cause, like the sun”, or “have you ever heard of orbital cycles?”.

Well, as one would expect, the scientists and the experts on past climate, and the scientific organizations around the world, have very carefully investigated whether natural causes could be behind the current rapid warming and we have known for many decades that the answer is no. It is not orbital cycles, it is not the sun, it is not volcanoes, etc. My first post in the series regarding why no known natural cause of climate change can explain the current warming was “Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming”. This post is about why it can’t be Sun.

The picture shows a bright shining down on planet Earth lighting up the planet a bit. The light from the sun is intense. | The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming
Sun shining down on Earth. Shutterstock asset id: 2709145593 by buradaki

One reason we know that it can’t be orbital cycles causing the current rapid global warming is that orbital cycles operate over tens of thousands of years or hundreds of thousands of years. That is not true for the sun, which has much faster fluctuations. However, it is true for both orbital cycles and the sun that they are not increasing the heat Earth receives. In fact, the effects of Orbital Cycles are slowly cooling Earth, not warming it, and the sun’s energy output has not shown any net increase.

In addition, if the current global warming was the sun or orbital cycles then the upper atmosphere would be warming just like the lower atmosphere, but the upper atmosphere is not warming, it is cooling. That’s an effect that is similar to a blanket holding heat in, which would happen if greenhouse gases were warming the Earth. Add to that the fact that the distribution of temperature increases in time and space matches the way greenhouse gases warm the Earth but does not match the way the sun or orbital cycles would warm the Earth.

A bright white sun is setting over Earth
Sunset from the International Space Station by NASA

I am considering this a super fact because a lot of people have been fooled by disinformation to believe that natural causes are the likely explanation. About 15-20 years ago, I was bamboozled by the disinformation myself. Since this is an important topic and this fact is likely surprising or even challenging to many people, it is a super fact in my opinion.

Understanding a topic and understanding the evidence makes all the difference. Something I had to relearn. That is also why climate scientists are near unanimous around the world over that climate change / global warming is both real and caused by us.

Past Climate the last 150,000 Years

The graph shows the temperature since the last ice age. There is a maximum temperature about 6,000 years ago, then a cooling and then a sharp uptick in temperature.
This graph shows global temperature going back twenty thousand years. Notice the relatively stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization. Also notice the maximum temperature around 6,000 years ago. It is referred to as the Holocene climatic optimum. Finally, notice the sudden sharp increase in temperature at the end. It is depicted in red and is not natural.
The graph shows wild swings over the last 150,000 years and then a very sharp uptick at the end. | The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming
Temperature record for the last 150,000 years. Again, notice the sharp uptick towards the end. This picture is taken from this article.

A Couple of Videos and Links

The video below is a short one-minute overview of the causes behind global warming.

The video below from NASA is a bit longer, 13 minutes, but it gives a more detailed overview. Click here to see the page from where this is coming from.

You can read some more about why it isn’t sun that is causing the current global warming here, and here, or here.

Conclusion

We know that the Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because the Sun’s energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase.

We know that Sun is not responsible for the current rapid global warming because if it was the Sun the upper atmosphere would not be cooling and the temperature increases would be distributed differently across Earth and distributed differently with respect to time.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here

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Author: thomasstigwikman

My name is Thomas Wikman. I am a software/robotics engineer with a background in physics. I am currently retired. I took early retirement. I am a dog lover, and especially a Leonberger lover, a home brewer, craft beer enthusiast, I’m learning French, and I am an avid reader. I live in Dallas, Texas, but I am originally from Sweden. I am married to Claudia, and we have three children. I have two blogs. The first feature the crazy adventures of our Leonberger Le Bronco von der Löwenhöhle as well as information on Leonbergers. The second blog, superfactful, feature information and facts I think are very interesting. With this blog I would like to create a list of facts that are accepted as true among the experts of the field and yet disputed amongst the public or highly surprising. These facts are special and in lieu of a better word I call them super-facts.

42 thoughts on “The Sun is not the Cause of the current Global Warming”

  1. Interesting post that clears up a lot of disinformation. I’ve heard global warming is caused by natural causes and my son’s spoken to me about this a number of times, but I’ve never been quite sure what to think! Clearly, the burning of fossil fuels is responsible, after all!

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      1. You are right Alex. I was just reading in a book about an organization GCC which had five prominent American fossil fuel companies as members. They spent two billion dollars on misleading advertisement and three billion dollars lobbying politicians to reject climate change / global warming. Their advertising followed the script of the tobacco industry insisting that cigarett smoke was harmless. They eventually stopped and GCC was disbanded, and they all accepted that global warming is real and caused by burning fossil fuels, their product, and yet the disinformation they spread lives on, especially on social media.

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    2. Thank you Ada. You are right, global warming and climate change was caused by natural causes in the past but that is not the case now. The current rapid global warming / climate change is caused by our greenhouse gas emissions, chiefly from burning fossil fuels. However, in the 1990’s many fossil fuel companies and organizations started attacking the science and the scientists and spreading disinformation. Even though most of them have stopped that now the misinformation lives on, especially on social media and people get very confused. I got fooled by the disinformation myself until I started learning about it.

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  4. I used to think global warming was a natural phenomenon as well, but that has now been proven over and over to be incorrect. Your posts on the topic are educational and enlightening, Thomas, and the naysayers should take note.

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    1. Thank you Kevin. Yes I guess claiming it is the sun is not very common but I’ve seen it several times (for example, on Facebook). Orbital cycles seem to be a more common scapegoat. However, it is part of the very common “climate has always changed” / “it is all natural” claim, along with orbital cycles, volcanoes and ocean cycles. (it is none of them) Addressing them all in one post would be a very long post, so I decided to split it up. You are right. I don’t think money decides everything, but it influences a lot, and the fossil fuel industry, which is a four trillion dollar industry (annual revenue) has spent many billions of dollars on spreading misinformation and lobbying politicians just here in the US. I am reading a book right now that is discussing that.

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  8. But surely getting rid of the sun would eliminate the problem completely, right? Right … ?

    The Ministry for the Future finally went on sale the other day so I snagged it and started reading it. The “wet bulb” event at the beginning is one of the most horrifying depictions of a climate disaster I’ve ever read, and I’ve read a lot of climate disaster fiction, even more so than the tornadoes from Heavy Weather or the hurricanes from Rivers.

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    1. I guess the global warming problem would dissappear if we got rid of the sun. Incidentally there are people suggesting that. Basically covering up in space.

      I think the Ministry for the Future was a great book but like you say a bit horrifying

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      1. Years ago I had an idea for a science fiction book I was going to call Stareaters, in which an alien civilization shows up in the Solar System and starts harvesting planets and moons to build a Dyson Sphere around the sun, but I decided I didn’t have the proper hard SF/physics chops to do it justice. 😁

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  10. Oh, my, this evidence is indeed compelling. The warming of the lower atmosphere alongside cooling in the upper atmosphere is consistent with greenhouse gases trapping heat, while the pattern and timing of warming do not fit solar or orbital explanations nearly as well. It’s a good reminder that understanding the evidence, rather than the noise around it, makes all the difference! Thank you, Thomas.

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  11. Thank you for another great post about climate change. The sun is so carefully monitored by so many scientists worldwide and for different reasons that it’s really impossible to believe that the sun could change dramatically enough to cause climate change and no one would say anything. In fact, one of the instruments I work on takes solar spectra all day every clear day while we sleep because understanding our sun and its most minute changes helps us understand the stars exoplanets orbit. Even though exoplanets are our interest, we’d see changes in the sun’s energy output with time. Understanding the reasons behind such an unexpected change would be worthy of numerous research papers.

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    1. It is amazing that you both love to sunbath. Our pug Daisy loved to sunbath but Rollo doesn’t and our fluffy nig Leonberger Bronco didn’t either. Good for you Lulu and Java Bean that love sunbathing.

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  14. Excellent and informative post, Thomas. I especially appreciate how clearly you explain the science and separate the evidence from common misconceptions. A thoughtful reminder of how important facts and reliable data are in understanding climate change.

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