Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them

Superfact 126: Climate change worsens wildfires in North America, especially in the western U.S. and Canada, as well as in southern and western Europe, the Arctic and Siberia, Australia, and parts of South America and central Africa. That is because these areas face longer dry spells and rising temperatures due to climate change. However, changes in human land-use, such as farming expansion, and landscape fragmentation in Northern Africa and south Asia have caused the total burned area to decline.

Esther’s writing prompt: August 19th : Fire

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Forest burning wildly. The entire picture is just intense fire. | Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them
Underwood, WAUSA – July 2, 2023: Tunnel 5 Fire in Columbia River Gorge Shutterstock asset id: 2327439537 by Christian Roberts-Olsen

Human-caused global warming is causing longer dry spells and rising temperatures in many areas. This results in larger and more intense wildfires despite improved forest management. This has globally expanded the area burned by 16% (2003 to 2019)

As mentioned, climate change worsened wildfires in North America, especially in the western U.S. and Canada, as well as in southern and western Europe, the Arctic and Siberia, Australia, and parts of South America and central Africa. However, changes in population distribution, land use, forest fragmentation and the conversion of land for urban development and agriculture in particularly south Asia and North Africa have suppressed wildfires, driving down global burned area. The net effect is estimated to be a reduction of the burned area by 5%. You can read more here, or here, or here, or here.

The photo shows tree trunks on fire and professional firefighters extinguishing a large, high-priority part of a forest fire.
Highly skilled hotshot firemen crew working in a challenging remote area with flames reaching the treetops. Shutter stock asset id: 2258645599 by Gorodenkoff

This is an important fact that is also paradoxical. On the one hand climate change / global warming is worsening wildfires. On the other hand, the size of the total area burned by wildfires has declined because of the change of human land use. Those who knew that wildfires are getting worse due to climate change are likely surprised to hear that total area burned by wildfires has declined. Those who use the fact that the total area burned by wildfires has declined to deny that global warming is worsening wildfires might be surprised to learn that they are wrong.

Some Clarification on Wildfires

  • Wildfires are not started by climate change or poor forest management. They are started by lighting, falling powerlines, campfires that are not properly put out, and sometimes by arson. That doesn’t mean that climate change and poor forest management does not increase the risk and extent of wildfires.
  • Research organizations such as NOAA recognize that wildfire is a natural part of the western US ecosystem. However, climate change is significantly exacerbating the problem by creating conditions more conducive to intense and widespread wildfires.
  • Suppression of fire in certain ecosystems may in fact increase the likelihood that a wildfire will occur.
  • There are wildfires started intentionally to prevent future wildfires.
  • In the past, forests evolved with frequent, low-intensity fires that helped clear out underbrush. They can have ecological benefits. Therefore, the number of wildfires may not have increased over the last 100 years.
  • Local conditions and forest management have evolved through time complicating the wildfire statistics around the world.
  • In the past reporting was not always consistent.

Climate change worsens wildfires in the US

Climate change, including increased heat, extended drought, and a thirsty atmosphere, has been a key driver in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the United States, particularly the western United States during the last two decades. The number of Wildfire acres burned in the United States has significantly increased even though the number of wildfires has not. Another important factor is forest management.

The graph consists of blue bars corresponding to a year starting in 1983 with the last bar being 2020. The bars show the number of million acres burned per year in the US. In 1983 and 1984 the bars show between 1 and 2 million acres burned. The following three years more than 2 million acres were burned. From 2015 to 2020 the number of acres burned annually is between 5 and 10 million acres. | Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them
Wildfire acres burned in the United States. Number of acres of wildfire burned in a given year in the United States. This is shown from 1983 onwards, when consistent reporting began. Data source : National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). Presented by OurWorldinData/natural disasters.

You can read more about the increased wildfires in the United States in this superfactful post.

Other super facts related to global warming

My Other Responses to Esther’s Prompts

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Author: thomasstigwikman

My name is Thomas Wikman. I am a software/robotics engineer with a background in physics. I am currently retired. I took early retirement. I am a dog lover, and especially a Leonberger lover, a home brewer, craft beer enthusiast, I’m learning French, and I am an avid reader. I live in Dallas, Texas, but I am originally from Sweden. I am married to Claudia, and we have three children. I have two blogs. The first feature the crazy adventures of our Leonberger Le Bronco von der Löwenhöhle as well as information on Leonbergers. The second blog, superfactful, feature information and facts I think are very interesting. With this blog I would like to create a list of facts that are accepted as true among the experts of the field and yet disputed amongst the public or highly surprising. These facts are special and in lieu of a better word I call them super-facts.

75 thoughts on “Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them”

  1. Thank you for these facts, Thomas. So many countries are experiencing these fires. It’s awful to see. Your facts make interesting reading and are so insightful in helping us gain a true picture of the situation.

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  2. I had no idea that some wildfires are started intentionally to prevent future wildfires, or that suppression of wildfires in some ecosystems make them more likely to occur! That’s really interesting. Seems it’s all a rather delicate (and complex) balancing act.

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    1. You are right, wildfire management can be counter intuitive and complicated. We’ve gotten better at it but the drier and hotter weather in the regions that are already prone to drought due to climate change is making things more difficult.

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  3. I did know that some fires were started intentionally and are part of a controlled burn when there is good forest management however thanks to your post I have also learnt a lot more about these fires which have been awful and life threatening to watch when they are not managed…

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    1. Thank you so much Carol. Wildfire and forest management is complicated and counter intuitive but you already knew that. We’ve gotten better at forest & wildfire management but the drier and hotter weather in the regions that are already prone to drought due to climate change is making things more difficult.

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        1. Yes I remember reading this too. They have ancient traditions based on experience that were discounted and dismissed more than a hundred years ago, but now they are getting attention again. Climate change will take several decades to address but improved forest management can deliver positive results in a few years.

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          1. Absolutely ,Thomas I accept change if it’s for the better however sometimes especially in situations like this old ways still work. I think on the whole everyone needs to accept this and apply their energies where it does make difference instead of trying to reinvent the wheel x

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  4. We’ve never been threatened with fires directly, happily, but fires have burned near here. A park where we used to hike burned about ten years ago. And they want to develop the area. It is terrifying.

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      1. Perhaps swallowing arsenic to learn whether it’s good for you is a bit too much truth-seeking. With information and foresight, one can plan ahead and skip the arsenic. One does not have to build a subdivision in an area prone to wildfires.

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          1. I’m sure someone has tried the arsenic.

            I suppose if I want to keep arsenic out of my system I’d start by staying away from rice and seafood. ***Naaah!
            I’d give up eating apple seeds except for the built up tolerance to cyanide it gives me. But also— the Acrylamide found in coffee, there’s no way I’m giving up coffee.

            But, having said that: Socrates ingested hemlock— it didn’t do his body any good.
            ymmv
            ~ Keep on keeping on

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      2. Interesting but I have not heard that before. However, my cousin’s daughter Emily is a firefighter and a fire engineer with a PhD, and she leads firefighting teams as well as write research papers sharing her knowledge. She has certainly been in the middle of it.

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    2. That is scary and I agree it does not sound like a good idea to develop the area. I visited northern Sweden in 2018 for my dad’s funeral. That summer they/we had record heat and record drought and there was a massive amount of wildfires, some large, and this was essentially in the arctic. They did not have enough people to put them out. It was pretty scary.

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  5. It’s certainly been a heck of a year for wildfires so far, although thankfully for once not here in Southern California (yet). Of course, we’re not in the thick of our fire season yet. Once the Santa Ana winds kick up is when we really have to worry. If we get some bad fires on the slopes and El Niño follows up the way they’re saying, the folks who live under denuded hillsides could be in for a bad time …

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    1. Yes you are certainly right. We visited our grandson in Baltimore when the wildfires were ravaging the boreal forests in Canada. There was smoke in the air all the way down in Baltimore and the air was unhealthy. However, I’ve read that they were not the worst wildfires in Canadian history, that was the wildfires in 2023. I certainly remember the palisade fires in California last year. However, they were not the worst in California history. That was the fires in Butte County in 2018. You sure have a lot of fires in California but it is a pretty dry place. I hope you will have a mild fire season and that all will be safe.

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    1. Yes you are right Maggie, you have certainly suffered a lot from wildfires in Canada lately and you are right, climate change bringing drier and hotter weather increases the likelihood for large wildfires. The large wildfires in the boreal forests this year were certainly bad. We visited our 10 month old grandson in Baltimore and the smoke came down all the way to Baltimore making the air unhealthy. Of course it was much worse in Canada. The last few years have been very bad for Canada but I’ve read that the worst wildfires in Canadian history was the wildfires in 2023. However, I am glad Australia, Mexico and New Zeeland and a few other countries came to help Canada this time.

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      1. The firefighters from these countries seem to have full time jobs, moving to the next countey during their wildfire season. We’re grateful and then reciprocate by sending our own. That’s a tough job.

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        1. Yes you are right. I guess we are going to need every firefighter we can get as that is also becoming a less popular job. The daughter of my cousin Emelie, is a firefighter, a fire enginer, and she has a PhD in fire engineering and leads teams of fire engineers. She has written articles about the decline of the employment of fire fighters and volunteers. Considering the increased of wildfires in many countries around the world, this is a challenge.

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  8. Fascinating and sobering, Thomas. Australia has certainly experienced the devastating reality of wildfires, and I recently watched a documentary about the Australia’s Black Summer—it was both heartbreaking and unforgettable. Your explanation of how climate, land use, and fire management interact shows just how complex the problem is. Thank you for putting these facts into perspective.

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    1. Thank you so much Patricia. I remember the horrible wildfires in Australia. You are right, the heat waves and droughts are getting worse due to climate change at the same time as turning forests and savannahs into crop fields will reduce areas burned as in South Asia, resulting in the statistics for burned areas being confusing.

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  9. Thanks for the great post about how climate change is contributing to the increased rate of wildfires. We had a bad wildfire about four years ago that threatened Kitt Peak. That one was likely sparked by lightning but dry hot conditions made the fire much more severe than it might have been.

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    1. Thank you so much David. That must have been scary. I guess lighting is a pretty common fire starter, but like you say hot conditions increases the risk and severeity. I was just curious so I just looked up where Kitt Peak is and I realized it is pretty close to Tuscon. That is a dry area. We’ve been to Tucson a few times to visit our niece who was in school there.

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          1. The landscape in The Astronomer’s Crypt was actually inspired by the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico which are higher and more forested. Unfortunately they’re also drying out as demonstrated by a recent forest fire near Ruidoso, NM.

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    1. Thank you so much Debby. I’ve read that too and I am not looking forward to it. We don’t have a big wildfire problem here in north Texas (yet) but we currently have a high risk threat that is getting worse. Whether we get a wildfire where I live or not, it affects the home insurance premium, and I don’t like a bigger home insurance premium.

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        1. You are right, they are scammers. However, the costs from flooding and wildfires etc., are real and they go on our premiums. Here in Dallas we are paying for the increased flood insurance for Houston residents but they are not paying for our increased risk from wildfires and severe hail storms. It’s local law. Not to mention that the tornado that destroyed our neighborhood to the tune of one billion dollars 6-7 years ago is making itself visible on our insurance premiums.

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          1. Oh yes, it always catches up. Here, insurance premiums go up annually because of other people’s accidents and claims. We pay for the mistakes of all. And then the fun part begins when you need THEM to pay out! 😦

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            1. I guess we were lucky. After a tornado destroyed our neighborhood our insurance paid $50,000.00 to repair our house, which was all of it, except for one parasol that flew away and they did not believe it ever existed. However, our neighbor really had to fight with their insurance.

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                1. Yes I should say that we raised the issue with the umbrella late. They had already paid us $50,000.00 for a new roof, a new chimney, new attic wiring and plumbing, a new fence, garage door, and my grill that flew away, and all the clean up, and several months later we said, we also had a table umbrella and it is gone. Well I guess that is called a parasol. They wanted proof that the umbrella ever existed, which we didn’t have.

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  13. Interesting post. I’m curious about forest fragmentation and how it affects wildlife habitat… probably not as much as wildfires. As someone mentioned above, it is a delicate balance, and changes need to be made with care.

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    1. Thank you JoAnna. That is an interesting question. I know that forest fragmentation is not good for wildlife. It blocks migration and movement and leads to human-wildlife conflict, among other things. However, I don’t have any numbers for how big the effects are. However, forest fragmentation and the change of land use, for example, turning forests and savannah into crop fields, lowers the risk of wildfires, while also harming wildlife. What is worse in the end I don’t know. However, it does complicate numbers regarding wildfires and that is a good unfortunately something those who want to confuse the public can use.

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        1. Yes I should say that the title of this post “Climate change worsens wildfires Globally and Human land-Use Changes Reduces them” is not in any way an endorsement, in any way for getting rid of forests. It is just an acknowledgement that if you turn forests and savannahs into crop fields you essentially remove the wildfire risk from that area. This in turn is the explanation for the fact that despite the fact that climate change worsens wildfires around the world, the total acreage burned in the world has not increased. We haven’t clearcut forests in the US and Canada and therefore wildfires is becoming a larger and larger problem here, made worse by climate change. That doesn’t mean that we should get rid of our forests.

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            1. In fact there is. Cutting all forest is a super bad idea (even though that happens a lot in South Asia). However, there is a bill in congress called the Fix Our Forest Act, S.1462, which streamline and improve forest management. Climate change will take a long time to fix but improving forest management you can do right away.

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  15. Chaplin: “We are not fans of wildfires here. We ran away from one of them in 2017 and it was very stressful for everyone, especially Dennis. Fortunately we had somewhere to stay that time but Mama and Dada’s friends have since moved away so I’m not sure where we would go if it happened again …”

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    1. I am so sorry that happened to you Chaplin and all the other animals especially Dennis. I hope it will never happen again. Here in Texas we are having problems with Wildfires right now. Dallas is surrounded by wildfires but they are smaller. In south-central Texas there is a big one that has burned 50,000 acres.

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  19. Hej Thomas, Just a point that I learnt about the Australian environment years ago at University. The unique adaptations of Australian plants like Banksia species mean they need the super hot intense fires to germinate their seeds. The off season burnoffs ( which they still conduct due to a build up of leaf litter) can help reduce the likelihood of fire, but can also cause long term detriment to our unique botany. It is a difficult problem to balance. Sadly, some of our fires have become intense in areas that have not been burnt for years, and the wildlife and human loss is devastating. Kangaroo Island and Marysville for instance. You are right, too about arson. In some of the catasclymic Black Saturday fires in Victoria, Australia, where 173 lives were lost, arson was blamed. (Plus falling power lines too) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires

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    1. Yes it is a complicated issue. The uncontrolled wildfires that are becoming more common, or at least larger, due to warmer and drier climate in certain parts of the world, are not a good thing. However, controlled fires to take care of underbrush and other issues is healthy for the ecosystem and can prevent uncontrolled and damaging wildfires. Climate change, dry weather, or hot weather does not start fires but provides the conditions for increasing the risk of them getting started or making the ones that are intentionally started worse. It is horrible when people start them intentionally (unless it is a controlled fire created by forest management teams).

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