Climate Disruption – Page 2

Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming

Superfact 122: We know that the current global warming, or if you call it Climate Change, or Climate Disruption, is caused by us primarily because of our burning of fossil fuels. It is not “natural causes”, and it is not orbital cycles, so called Milankovitch cycles. These orbital cycles include changes in orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and axial precession.

Three illustrated orbital cycles. On the left orbital eccentricity, in the middle is the axial tilt and on the right axial precession. | Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming — Illustration of Milankovitch cycles from MIT’s Climate Primer.

The evidence that the current rapid global warming is chiefly caused by our burning of fossil fuels is extensive and for all practical purposes conclusive. One of the steps towards understanding this evidence is understanding why no known natural cause of climate change can explain the current warming, and that includes orbital cycles. Therefore, this post is just one small step towards preparing you for the evidence that the current rapid global warming is chiefly caused by us. However, there is a lot of disinformation around this specific topic.

Hockey stick curve going back 1,000 years. The recent uptick in global temperature is very sharp and very sudden. — The so-called hockey stick curve depicting the last 1,000 years. The blue line is the first hockey stick curve ever created (by Michael Mann). He used proxy measurements such as tree rings, green-dots 30-year average, red temperature measurements. Wikimedia commons <<https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en>>. This graph is taken from this page.

Again, hockey stick curve going back 1,000 years. This time human causes and natural causes are indicated with a black respective a red shape. | Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming — The so-called hockey stick curve depicting the last 1,000 years. In this graph I have indicated what part of the graph is climate change caused by natural causes respective climate change caused by human causes.

Very briefly; Earth’s orbital cycles, called the Milankovitch cycles are largely responsible for the ice ages, but they are not responsible for the current warming because the current warming is too rapid for the orbital cycles to be the cause, and the way the warming is happening is incompatible with how a warming caused by Milankovitch cycles would have happened. In addition, according to the Milankovitch cycles we should be cooling, not warming.

I am considering this a super fact because a lot of people have been fooled by the disinformation on this topic, and there is also a lot of gaslighting from less than reputable organizations and from politicians. They have bamboozled a lot of people. About 15 years ago, I was bamboozled by the disinformation myself. That was before I took the time to try to understand the topic. Understanding a topic, and understanding the evidence makes all the difference, and that is why climate scientists are near unanimous the world over that climate change / global warming is both real and caused by us.

Ask yourself, why would the climate scientists and the atmospheric physicists around the world, including scientists at NASA and NOAA, not investigate orbital cycles and other natural causes for climate change as a possible cause for our current warming? They are the experts on orbital cycles and past climate after all. We know that orbital cycles are not the cause of the current global warming, and this is important to know. Therefore, I think it is a super fact.

What Are Orbital Cycles?

One type of important type of climate forcing that’s been the cause behind the multiple ice ages that we’ve had over the last two million years are earth’s orbital cycles, or the Milankovitch cycles. There are primarily three orbital cycles, orbital eccentricity, change in axial tilt, and axial precession. Could they explain the current warming? No, they can’t because they are too slow, we are currently in a cycle that should be cooling the planet, and the way orbital cycles would warm the planet if they were responsible for the warming is very different from what we are witnessing.

Changes in Eccentricity

Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle. Earth’s orbit varies from nearly circular to slightly elliptical and this change can cause climate change. This shift in Earth’s orbit takes place over periods of about 100,000 and 400,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of Earth’s eccentricity.

Changes in Obliquity (Tilt)

The angle Earth’s axis of rotation is tilted as it travels around the Sun is known as obliquity. Obliquity is why Earth has seasons. Over the last million years, it has varied between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees with respect to Earth’s orbital plane. The greater Earth’s axial tilt angle, the more extreme our seasons are. In addition, a larger tilt angle favor periods of deglaciation. The changes of Earth’s obliquity have a period of 41,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of the changes in obliquity.

Axial Precession (Wobble)

Earth wobbles slightly as it rotates, like a slightly off-center spinning top. The axis of Earth’s wobble changes slowly and is called axial precession. The corresponding cycle spans 25,771.5 years, or approximately 26,000 years. Click on the video from NASA below for an illustration of the changes in axial precession.

Video Explaining Earth’s Orbital Cycles

The video below from PBS gives an explanation and overview of earth’s three orbital cycles.

Orbital cycles are far too Slow to Cause the Rapid Global Warming Happening Today

The changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt operate over 20,000+ to 100,000-year periods, making Orbital Cycles unable to drive the sharp temperature spikes seen in a single century.

The graph shows the temperature since the last ice age. There is a maximum temperature about 6,000 years ago, then a cooling and then a sharp uptick in temperature. — Global temperature going back twenty thousand years, a hockey stick graph. Notice the stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization, and also notice the sudden sharp increase at the end. Orbital cycles can’t explain that, and it certainly does not look natural.

Orbital Cycles Predict Slow Cooling, not Rapid Heating

About 6,000 years ago Earth’s temperature was a bit warmer than it is today largely due to the climate fluctuations caused by orbital cycles. The warm period in the beginning of the Holocene epoch is referred to as the Holocene climatic optimum. Natural causes for climate change caused Earth’s temperature to slowly cool off until the recent very sudden uptick in average global temperatures.

Orbital Cycles are not the Cause of the current Global Warming — Temperature record for the last 150,000 years. Notice the sharp uptick towards the end. This picture is taken from this article.

The graph shows wild swings over the last 50,000 years and then a very sharp uptick at the end, which as indicated in the graph is caused by us. — Temperature record for the last 50,000 years. Notice the sharp uptick towards the end. I have circled natural and human caused causes for the climate change. This picture is taken from this article.

Below is a video that explains in greater detail why orbital cycles cannot explain the current warming. You can also read more about it here.

The Cooling of the Upper Atmosphere Tells Us the Current Warming is not Caused by Orbital Cycles or the Sun

Yes, the cooling of the upper atmosphere (specifically the stratosphere above the troposphere) is a key sign that current global warming is not caused by Milankovitch cycles or changes in the sun. Instead, observations show a warming lower layer (troposphere) and a cooling upper layer, which is the exact “fingerprint” of human-caused greenhouse gases. Other evidence that the warming is caused by greenhouse gases and not orbital cycles or the sun is the distribution of the warming across the globe and over time.

A Couple of Videos

The video below is a short one-minute overview of the causes behind global warming.

The video below from NASA is a bit longer, 13 minutes, but it gives a more detailed overview. Click here to see the page from where this is coming from.

Conclusion

We know that Orbital Cycles are not responsible for the current rapid global warming because Orbital Cycles operate on tens of thousands of years or hundreds of thousands of years, not a couple of centuries.

We know that Orbital Cycles are not responsible for the current rapid global warming because the effects of Orbital Cycles are slowly cooling Earth, not warming it.

We know that Orbital Cycles are not responsible for the current rapid global warming because if it was orbital cycles (or the sun) the upper atmosphere would not be cooling and the temperature increases would be distributed differently across Earth and distributed differently with respect to time.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here

Beyond Debate by Shahir Masri a Review

The goal of this blog is to create a list of what I call super facts. Super facts are important and true facts that are nevertheless highly surprising to many, misunderstood, or disputed among the public. They are special facts that we all can learn something important from. However, I also make posts that are not super facts but feature other interesting information, such as this book review and book recommendation.

A Note About Liars on Amazon

I’ve noticed that most of the reviews for this book were positive but there were a few negative reviews from what I refer to as climate deniers. These reviews were not just misguided fossil fuel talking points, but they were obviously written by people who had not read the book or by people who skimmed the book and who did not make an honest effort to understand the content of the book. You can tell because the objections they raise were addressed and clearly debunked in the book in a way that was easy to understand.

I’ve read many books on climate science and there are always a bunch of negative reviews written by people who have no clue about the content of the book. Writing reviews for books you have not read is the same as lying, especially if you are slamming the book. There are reviewers who literally seem to be at war with the truth, and they spend their time trying to bury it, and in the process, they are shamelessly lying. Why would someone dump lots of fake reviews over books they haven’t read?

BEYOND DEBATE: Answers to 50 Misconceptions on Climate Change by Dr. Shahir Masri

Below I am listing the two versions of this book (kindle and paperback). I bought the paperback version.

Paperback – Publisher : Dockside Sailing Press (July 14, 2018), ISBN-10 : 0692157417, ISBN-13 : 978-0692157411, 329 pages, item weight : 1.09 pounds, dimensions : 5.5 x 0.75 x 8.5 inches. It costs $6.44 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.
Kindle – Published : Dockside Sailing Press (April 12, 2021) ASIN : B092DPY7LL, 245 pages, it costs $9.99 on US Amazon. Click here to order it from Amazon.com.

The front cover features a photo of snowy mountains in the background and sea ice in the foreground, as well as the title and author name. The title is “BEYOND DEBATE: Answers to 50 Misconceptions on Climate Change” by “Shahir Masri” front cover | Beyond Debate by Shahir Masri a Review — BEYOND DEBATE: Answers to 50 Misconceptions on Climate Change. Click on the image to go to the Amazon page for the paperback version of the book.

Amazon’s Description of the Book

What if volcanoes are heating the planet? Maybe solar cycles are to blame? Isn’t carbon dioxide good for plants? These are but a few of the questions on global warming that are addressed in this book. If you are concerned that global warming may be a serious problem, but find it hard to know what to believe or how to help in the face of conflicting arguments, you will want to read this book. You don’t have to be a scientist to understand Dr. Shahir Masri’s explanations and solutions. They proceed along common-sense lines that are easy to follow. Climate change poses a major threat to public health and the environment. Yet, political squabbles and misinformation have stalled policy and enabled little progress to be made in solving the crisis.

Similarly, the notion of a “climate debate” has created the illusion of a divided scientific community, when in fact most scientists agree that human activity is causing the planet to warm. At a time when open discussion is essential, talk of global warming has become entrenched in politics and all but taboo in unfamiliar company. In Beyond Debate, Shahir Masri clears up 50 of the most common misconceptions surrounding climate change. He simplifies the science and resolves the confusion so that everyone may better understand the issue. Now is not the time for silence, but rather a time for conversation and collective action to address greenhouse gas emissions and begin to solve the climate crisis. Action begins with understanding, which Beyond Debate so eloquently offers. Masri conveys a sense of urgency while describing opportunities for hope.

This is my five-star review for BEYOND DEBATE

Fix your misconceptions. Don’t fall for disinformation. Be curious and learn.

There are a lot of misconceptions, misunderstandings as well as disinformation surrounding climate change or if you call it global warming, global weirding, or climate disruption. This book provides answers and explanations to 50 misconceptions. Some of the misconceptions are common but basic misunderstandings. Other misconceptions require more in depth explanations.

In addition, the book gives you an introduction into how the greenhouse effect works, covering 200+ years of scientific discoveries by some famous scientists. Did you know that without the various greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone), our planet would be 60 degrees colder than it is. It would be a snowball earth. This book is for those of us who are curious and want to learn more about this topic.

An example of a basic misconception is Chapter 4, “Earth’s Natural cycles explain recent warming”, well they don’t. For example, the Milankovitch cycles, earth’s precession, axial tilt, and the eccentricity of earth’s orbit, are too slow and would favor cooling right now, not warming. It is not the sun (chapter 5) and not volcanoes (chapter 3). Volcanoes release less than 1 % of the CO2 released currently by human activities, and they are part of the carbon cycle, and CO2 from volcanoes have the wrong isotope mix to correspond to the increase of CO2. He explains that the carbon atom comes in different isotopes (different number of neutrons) and that the mix is different for different carbon sources and that the carbon added to the atmosphere comes from burning fossil fuels based on the isotope mix.

I can add that in addition different potential causes for global warming result in different ways the warming happens (like a fingerprint) and the fingerprint of the current warming is that of greenhouse gases (he does not explain this enough). Another thing to ask yourself is if you think the current global warming is natural, why do paleoclimatologists and others who have dedicated their lives to studying naturally occurring climate change not think this warming is natural.

Another basic misconception is addressed in Chapter 23, “Climate models don’t account for the most abundant greenhouse gas, water vapor”, which is false, they do account for water vapor. Some people believe that because water vapor is a more powerful and abundant greenhouse gas than CO2, it should be what is causing global warming. That’s not how it works. We are not increasing water vapor in the atmosphere by emitting it and even if we did it would rain back down. Therefore, water vapor is not driving global warming. If a greenhouse gas isn’t increasing it can’t cause rising temperatures, no matter how abundant it is.

However, an increase in carbon dioxide warms the atmosphere which in turn increases the amount of humidity the atmosphere can hold (positive feedback loop) thus water vapor gives the greenhouse effect a boost. It gives CO2 and methane a bit of a helping hand as the emissions and increase of these gases heats things up, but water vapor is not driving it. This is not hard to understand and yet this misconception refuses to go away.

Some other examples are chapter 8, “Climate Change is Chinese hoax” – this is a funny one. Climate science is 200+ year old European science. Chapter 12, “Climate change is just a theory” – see “evolution is just a theory”. Chapter 15, “there is still uncertainty about climate change” – that we know it is happening and that we are the cause is well established but there is uncertainty about other related things. Chapter 36, “glaciers aren’t melting, Antarctica is even gaining ice” – glaciers and sea ice are melting rapidly. Antarctica was gaining ice for four decades despite warming but there are good explanations for this (for example, precipitation). Now Antarctica is losing ice. Chapter 43, “Electric cars aren’t that green” – they are much cleaner than gas cars, but it depends on where you live. Chapter 49, “It’s too late for climate” – no it isn’t.

So, as you can see, this is a fact packed book addressing and correcting a lot of misconceptions. It is very educational and great for anyone ready to learn and understand. It is also well organized and well written. Reading this book will make you smarter and I highly recommend it to anyone who is curious about this topic. I think we all have some misconception on this topic. Let’s correct them.

The back cover features an overview of the book and a photo and a brief introduction of the author “Shahir Masri”. | Back cover for BEYOND DEBATE: Answers to 50 Misconceptions on Climate Change By Dr. Shahir Masri — BEYOND DEBATE: Answers to 50 Misconceptions on Climate Change. Click on the image to go to the Amazon page for the Kindle version of the book.