Category: Super fact

This post is about a super-fact. The goal of this blog is to create a list of facts or insights that are important and not trivia, known to be true, and yet highly surprising, shocking, amazing, or widely disputed amongst the public but not disputed among the scientists or experts in the relevant fields. However, not all of my posts are super-facts. This category distinguishes posts that are super-facts.

Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling

Superfact 140: Naturally occurring climate change caused by Earth’s orbital cycles (Milankovitch cycles) would currently result in a slight long-term cooling trend. Other natural causes of climate change such as solar activity, volcanic trends, and other sources of carbon emissions do not increase Earth’s average global temperature. In addition, reductions in Ozone depleting gases have a cooling effect. Our fossil fuel emissions are the cause for the current sharp increase global temperature as well as for it not getting colder.

The graph shows the temperature since the last ice age. There is a maximum temperature about 6,000 years ago, then a cooling and then a sharp uptick in temperature. | Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling
Global temperature from 20,000 BCE until now. Notice the Holocene Thermal Maximum around 6,000 years ago and the relatively stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization. Pay special attention to the sudden sharp increase in average global temperature at the end.

The sharp spike in global average temperatures towards the right side of the graph above is caused by us humans, chiefly by our burning of fossil fuels. However, the rest of the graph corresponds to natural causes of climate change. The wild swings in the average global temperature during the ice ages are chiefly caused by Earth’s orbital cycles, the so called Milankovitch cycles. <<Link-1>> There are three main Milankovitch cycles:

  • Changes in Earth’s orbital eccentricity, with 100,000 year cycles.
  • Changes in obliquity or axial tilt, with a 41,000 year cycle.
  • Axial precession or wobble, with a 26,000 year cycle.
Three illustrated orbital cycles. On the left orbital eccentricity, in the middle is the axial tilt and on the right axial precession.
Illustration of Milankovitch cycles from MIT’s Climate Primer.

The Milankovitch cycles cool Earth, and the sun, climate oscillations and ocean currents, volcanoes and emissions part of the carbon cycle do not cause any significant global warming in the long run. In addition, reductions in Ozone depleting gases have a cooling effect and so does our emissions of aerosols. In other words, if it weren’t for our carbon emissions Earth would be getting colder. I believe this is a surprising and important fact and therefore a super fact.

Milankovitch Cycles

Several scientists, astronomers and organizations around the world keep track of the orbital cycles including NASA, NOAA, etc. The Milankovitch cycles explain the ice ages, but these cycles are too long to explain the recent one or two century spike in average global temperatures. Furthermore, the Milankovitch cycles would currently slowly cool the atmosphere not warming it.

The graph shows wild swings over the last 150,000 years and then a very sharp uptick at the end. | Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling
Temperature record for the last 150,000 years. Orbital cycles are the main cause for these swings but not the temperature spike at the end. This picture is taken from this article.

In addition, different causes for climate change leave behind different fingerprints in how the heat is distributed across time, seasons, atmospheric layers, and geography. The “fingerprint” of the current warming is that of greenhouse gases being the cause for it and not orbital cycles. For example, the upper atmosphere is cooling an effect caused by the “blanket effect” caused by greenhouse gases. You can read more about how the current rapid global warming is different from past ice age temperature swings here.

To read more about the Milankovitch cycles click here.

The Sun Does Not Contribute to Global Warming

The sun cannot explain the average increase in global warming either. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s, in fact it is at its lowest in over a hundred years, and again the sun has the wrong “fingerprint”. You can read more about this here.

A thin yellow line graph (on black background) shows the sun’s irradiance fluctuating every 11 year. However, it does not go up overall, but it rather goes down even though the red line graph showing temperature rises sharply.
Solar irradiance (yellow) plotted with temperature (red) since 1880. NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Volcanoes and Other Natural Sources of Carbon Emissions Do Not Contribute to Global Warming

Human emissions are roughly 60 to 100 times greater than all global volcanic output combined. In addition, volcanoes are part of the carbon cycle which has been stable for a long time. Thus, volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming. You can read more about this here.

The graph shows human emissions exceeding that of volcanoes around 1870 and then rising rapidly. | Without the Burning of Fossil Fuels Earth would be cooling
Human carbon missions (green line) vs. emissions from volcanic eruptions (purple line at bottom). Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Burton et al., 2013.

There are a lot of natural carbon emissions from the soil, rotting plants, animal and human respiration, and oceans, and a small amount from volcanoes. However, carbon is also absorbed by the oceans, and by plants via photosynthesis, etc., and this creates a balance that has existed for many thousands of years. This is called the carbon cycle. Even though the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are smaller than some of the naturally occurring carbon emissions, it is the carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels that are behind the increase of carbon in the atmosphere because they are a new addition that disrupts the carbon cycle.

The carbon cycle in the picture shows that the terrestrial biosphere is absorbing 120 Gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere and emits 60 Gigatons to the atmosphere. It also adds 60 Gigatons of carbon to terrestrial soils. It also shows the Surface of the Ocean both emitting and absorbing 90 Gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere and both emitting and absorbing 90 Gigatons of carbon to the deep ocean. There are additional flows in the picture. It is complex but stable cycle.
The picture above was drawn by me and is an adaptation of Figure 3.1 on page 31 in the book “The Physics of Climate Change by Lawrence M. Krauss”.

Conclusion

Orbital cycles, so called Milankovitch cycles, changes climate naturally but they are in a cooling phase. The sun is cooling a bit. Reductions in Ozone depleting gases have a cooling effect and aerosol particle pollution has a cooling effect.

Climate variability, climate oscillations, climate currents affect climate and are important to climate and are affected by global warming, but they are not the cause behind the recent rapid global warming.

Volcanoes and carbon emissions that are part of the carbon cycle are not adding to the carbon in the atmosphere. However, carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels do. If we didn’t burn fossil fuels Earth would be cooling.

Note : this does imply that our carbon emissions is a good thing. The rapid global warming we are witnessing is a very dangerous problem.

Other super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here

Millions of species have been documented

Super fact 139 : 2.17 million species have been described but it is possible that as many as 20% of those are duplicates. However, most species are likely undiscovered.

This bar graph feature ten taxonomic groups; Insects (1 million species), Flowering plants (369,000 species), Mushrooms (157,648 species), Arachnids (97,085 species), Fishes (37,288 species), Mosses (21,925 species), Reptiles (12,502 species), Birds (11,185 species), Amphibians (8,918 species), Mammals (6,815 species). | Millions of species have been documented
The number of identified and named species in each taxonomic group. Since many species have not yet been described, this is a large underestimate of the total number of species in the world. Note about Taxonomic group: Scientists sort living things into groups based on how closely related they are. Each of these groups is called a taxonomic group. The groups fit inside one another, from broad to narrow. Mammals, birds and fish are broad groups. Within mammals, primates are a narrower group. And within primates, humans are just one species. Data source: International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened species (2025).  OurWorldinData.org/biodiversity | CC BY

As mentioned, a couple of million species have been named and identified. For a species to be formally described, it’s description must be published in a scientific journal or book. Considering this it is quite impressive that we’ve described millions of species, mostly insects and plants. However, according to science magazine the most likely number of species is in the range of 5 to 10 million eukaryotes. Eukaryotes are organisms consisting of complex cells with a membrane wrapped in nucleus and other internal compartments, which exclude viruses and bacteria.

This bar graph feature ten taxonomic groups; Insects (1 million species), Flowering plants (369,000 species), Mushrooms (157,648 species), Arachnids (97,085 species), Molluscs (88,244 species), Crustaceans (83,263 species), Fishes (37,288 species), Mosses (21,925 species), Green algae (14,550 species), Reptiles (12,502 species), Ferns and allies (11,800 species), Birds (11,185 species), Amphibians (8,918 species), Red algae (7,744 species), Mammals (6,815 species), Corals (5,672 species), Brown algae (5,005 species), Gymnosperms (1,113 species), Velvet worms (220 species), Horshoe crabs (4 species), All invertebrates (1.51 million species), All groups (2.17 million species).
This graph includes a more complete set of taxonomic groups. Data source: International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened species (2025).  OurWorldinData.org/biodiversity | CC BY

The fact that we have succeeded in describing two million species is impressive and surprising. That is a lot of work. The fact that there are likely millions of more species we haven’t found is equally surprising. There are surprisingly many species and unless you already knew this, this is surprising and perhaps mind-blowing information, and therefore a super fact.

Challenges in Defining a Species

Species is a unit of biological classification and it is the lowest taxonomic rank below genus. Species is often defined using the Biological Species Concept, which is defined as populations whose members can interbreed and produce fertile offspring, and are reproductively isolated from other groups. However, it is complicated. Asexual organisms, hybrids and ring species, and extinct species complicate things. Therefore, other ways of defining species exist.

The picture shows a Red Fox with an upside down pyramid showing the different taxonomic ranks. Domain is at the top (Eukarya), Kingdom (Animalia), Phylym (Chordata), Class (Mammalia), Order (Carnivora), Family (Canidae), Genus (Vulpes), Species (Vulpes vulpes, which is the red fox). | Millions of species have been documented
The major ranks: domain, kingdom, phylum, class, order, family, genus, and species, applied to the red fox, Vulpes vulpes. Many classifications based on genetic analysis require more than these eight ranks, not all of which have distinct names. Annina Breen, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0&gt;, via Wikimedia Commons.

To define a species, you can also use genetic similarity, unique ecological niches, unique common ancestors, distinct physical traits, size, shape, and structural features. In other words, species concept is not simple and defining a species requires expertise. This makes it even more impressive that we have identified and described two million species.

I should add that there are also subspecies. A subspecies is a distinct population within a species that lives in a specific geographic region and differs in physical traits from other populations of the same species, while still being able to interbreed with them. An example is the dog which is a subspecies of the gray wolf.

Ring Species

As mentioned, a common definition of species is that two animals belong to the same species if they can interbreed in nature and produce viable, fertile offspring. As I pointed out it is not always that simple. An animal A may be able to successfully interbreed with an animal B, and that animal B may be able to successfully interbreed with an animal C, but animal A and C cannot interbreed. Animal A could be said to be a different species relative to animal C, but animal B could be said to be the same species as both animal A & C using the definition above.

A great geography related example of this is ring species. In a ring species, gene flow occurs between neighboring populations of a species, but at the ends of the ring the populations don’t interbreed.

The picture depicts different subspecies as little colored circles centered around a big lake. The color changes a little bit at the time. All the circles next to each other can interbreed.
Illustration of ring species, an example of how speciation can be relative. All the circles next to each other can interbreed but at the end it no longer works. Andrew Z. Colvin, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0&gt;, via Wikimedia Commons

Other Super Facts Related to Wildlife

A couple of interesting super facts related to species and wildlife are :

  • (70) The Wild Mammal Biomass Has Substantially Declined – click to visit
  • (71) The Extinction Rate is Much Higher Than the Natural Baseline Rate – click to visit

The first one is concerning the fact that we humans and our domesticated animals, cattle etc., have largely replaced wild animals and wild mammals. As the total biomass has increased the wild mammal biomass has decreased. The second super fact is about the current extinction rate being perhaps thousands of times higher than what is typical. A mass extinction event is often defined as when 75% of all species, or more, goes extinct within 2 million years. 200 years is only 0.01% of 2 million years so modern society has existed for an extremely short time. It is just a tiny blip on geological scales. So, even with an extinction rate thousands of times above normal, we haven’t gotten very far yet. Luckily, it looks like we might be turning things around, so perhaps we won’t be like the asteroid that exterminated the non-Avian dinosaurs.

3D illustration showing two carnivorous dinosaurs and two large herbivores looking up at a burning asteroid. | Millions of species have been documented
Extinction of the dinosaurs when a large asteroid hits earth 66 million years ago. It was the last mass extinction event. Asset id: 2196200279 by funstarts33
To see the other Super Facts click here

A Typical AI Query Use Less Energy Than Using a Laptop One Minute

Super fact 138 : A Typical AI Query use less energy than using a laptop for one minute. A typical AI Query use between a few drops of water to half a bottle of water at worst. Data centers in the United States use roughly 0.2% of total U.S. freshwater when combining direct facility cooling and indirect water used for electricity generation. A ten minute shower uses more energy than 5,000 typical AI Queries.

The bar graph shows that a typical AI query uses 0.3 Watt hours of energy whilst a 5-minute laptop usage uses 2 Watt hours. Charging a mobile phone use 20 Watt hours and watching TV for one hour uses 90 Watt hours. Average US consumption per person and per is 24 Watt hours and a one minute shower uses 1,600 Watt hours. | A Typical AI Query Use Less Energy Than Using a Laptop One Minute
How does the electricity consumption of individual AI queries compare to other everyday activities? Marginal increase in electricity consumption from different activities, measured in watt-hours (Wh). Note Estimates for AI cover inference only; however, model training adds little per query given how many queries each model serves over its lifetime. Data source: AI text query estimates from EpochAI (2025). Other estimates explained at https://hannahritchie.github.io/energy-use-comparisons  OurWorldinData – Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems.   Licensed under CC-BY by the author Hannah Ritchie.

According to the Manhattan institute, NVIDIA, Google and this article the data centers in the United States use roughly 0.2% of total U.S. freshwater when combining direct facility cooling and indirect water used for electricity generation. Most fresh water used in the US is for irrigation / agriculture and the second largest consumer of fresh water is thermoelectric plants (coal, natural gas, nuclear). Worldwide 70% of freshwater used is used by agriculture and industry is another big user. According to this article Google says that a typical AI query uses five drops of water, and half a bottle of water at the worst. You can read more about water usage here, here, here, and here.

Around half of all energy used by data centers is thermoelectric. Most of the freshwater usage that is part of the 0.2% number is due to the thermoelectric powerplants supplying the energy to data centers. However, it should be noted that as clean energy is increasingly adopted this number will decline. On the other hand, the manufacturing of computer chips, which also use a lot of freshwater, is not taken into account in this number because it is a onetime event that is difficult to account for. It might double or even triple the 0.2% number, which is still very little.

It should be noted that there are a lot of valid concerns about AI and datacenters, but to reduce carbon emissions and pollution and to waste less freshwater, it might be more effective to eat less beef, irrigate your lawn less, take shorter showers, drive an EV or a hybrid instead of a gas guzzling SUV with an internal combustion engine, or perhaps use public transportation. You’d start with the low hanging fruit. In fact, if the AI query you are about to make saves you some time on your laptop, then the AI query probably helps the environment.

Datacenters use less freshwater than many of us would expect, and typical AI queries use almost no energy and correspond to very little use of freshwater. I think this comes as a surprise to many considering the ongoing datacenter panic. It is therefore a super fact.

Datacenters and Energy Usage

Datacenters use a significant amount of energy but perhaps not as much as one would think. However, their energy use is increasing, and they are part of our rising energy demand. With a growing population, a growing economy, cryptocurrencies, AI, datacenters, electrification, we are going to need a growing supply of electricity and an expanding grid. Hopefully our energy sources will be mostly clean energy, which luckily seems to be the trend. See “The Unfolding Clean Energy Revolution”.

The United States is the country with the most datacenters and as can be seen in the graph below, the datacenters in the United States use a relatively large portion of its available electricity for datacenters and it is increasing.

The graph shows that the share of electricity used for data centers in the US is 5%, Europe 2%, China 1%, Middle East 0.3%, Africa 0.2%, Central & South America 0.1%, and globally it is 1.5%.
5% of electricity generated in the United States is used for data centers. Electricity consumed by data centers as a share of electricity generation in 2025. Note: Data centers power a wide range of services, including streaming, messaging, and cloud storage, as well as artificial intelligence (AI). Data sources: International Energy agency (2026); Ember (2026). CC BY

The Growing Energy Use by Datacenters

The three graphs below are from this page and this page. Note the projected increase in electricity use for data centers. Note that by visiting these pages you play around with the graphs and changed regions and countries and other settings to generate your own graphs.

The graphs depict the growing electricity use by data centers from 2020 to 2025. In the United States the share of electricity used for data centers grew from 2.6% in 2020 to 4.9% in 2025. It also grew for Europe, China, Africa, and the World but less. For the world without the United States and China it grew more modestly from 0.7% to 0.9%. | A Typical AI Query Use Less Energy Than Using a Laptop One Minute
Share of total electricity demand used by data centers 2020 to 2025. Electricity consumed by data centers given as a share of electricity generation. Data centers power a wide range of digital services including streaming, messaging, and cloud storage. Artificial Intelligence (AI) focused data centers are a subset of this electricity consumption. Data source: International Energy agency (2026); Ember (2026). OurWorldinData.org/artificial-intelligence | CC BY
The graph shows that the share of electricity used for data centers in the US is 4.9%, Europe 1.9%, China 1.1%, Middle East 0.3%, Africa 0.2%, Central & South America 0.1%, and globally it is 1.5%.
Share of total electricity demand used by data centers 2025. Electricity consumed by data centers given as a share of electricity generation. Data centers power a wide range of digital services including streaming, messaging, and cloud storage. Artificial Intelligence (AI) focused data centers are a subset of this electricity consumption. Data source: International Energy agency (2026); Ember (2026). OurWorldinData.org/artificial-intelligence | CC BY
This graph shows that worldwide growth in electricity usage by data centers will grow from 485TWh in 2025 to 945TWh in 2030. However, the portion from Artificial Intelligence (AI) will grow from 155TWh to 465TWh | A Typical AI Query Use Less Energy Than Using a Laptop One Minute
How much of global electricity is used for data centers? Measured in terawatt-hours (TWh). Estimates for 2025; base-case projections for 2030 from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Note: Projections for 2030 are very uncertain but are shown here to reflect expectations that most data center growth will come from AI-focused ones. Data source: IEA (2026). Key Questions on Energy and AI. CC BY

As you can see in the graphs above, there is a significant portion, but not a large portion, of electricity usage by data centers. However, it is important to note that only a portion of this is for Artificial Intelligence. It will grow though. You can read more about this issue here, and here, or here.

Fresh Water Usage in the United States

The graphics below showing the source and use of freshwater in the United States is in the public domain and is taken from this article.

The diagram shows that the daily surface water withdrawals is 237,000 gallons per day and the daily groundwater withdrawals is 84,700 gallons per day. This is distributed to agriculture (118,000 gallons per day), livestock (2,000 gallons per day). Aquaculture (7,550 gallons per day), thermoelectric power (133,000 gallons per day), Industrial (14,800 gallons per day), domestic (3,260 gallons per day), and public supply (39,000 gallons per day).
Source and use of water in the United States, 2015. The diagram is in the public domain. View media details.

In the diagram above, the top row of cylinders represents where America’s freshwater came from (source) in 2015, either from surface water (blue) or from groundwater (brown). You can see most of the water we use came from surface-water sources, such as rivers and lakes. About 26 percent of water used came from groundwater. The pipes leading out of the surface-water and groundwater cylinders on the top row and flowing into the bottom rows of cylinders (green) show the categories of water use where the water was sent after being withdrawn from a river, lake, reservoir, or well.

For example, the blue pipe coming out of the surface-water cylinder and entering the public supply cylinder shows that 23,800 Mgal/d of water was withdrawn from surface-water sources for public-supply uses (you probably get your water this way). Likewise, the brown pipe shows that public-suppliers withdrew another 15,200 Mgal/d of water from groundwater sources. Each green cylinder represents a category of water use. The industrial cylinder, for instance, shows how much groundwater, surface water, and total water was used inthe United States, each day, by industries.

Other Super Facts Related to Artificial Intelligence

The diagram shows a deep learning neural network featuring hidden layers, a couple of input/output layers, and large computer.
The diagram shows a deep learning neural network featuring hidden layers, a couple of input/output layers, and a large computer. The dots in the diagram are neurons. With permission from kwholley63.
To see the other Super Facts click here

Child mortality has declined Globally yet Five Million Children Die Annually

Super fact 137 : Child mortality has sharply declined in all world regions. Despite that fact, five million children die every year. Most of these deaths are preventable.

The graph shows the child mortality rate steadily declining curve going from 22.7% in 1950 to 3.6% in 2023. There is a significant uptick in 1960. | Child mortality has declined Globally yet Five Million Children Die Annually
Child mortality rate worldwide. Share of newborns who die before reaching the age of five. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – Learn more about this data. OurWorldinData.org/child-mortality | CC BY

The graph above shows the probability a newborn would die before reaching the age of five if the year’s age-specific mortality rates stayed unchanged. It is not the share of an actual cohort that has been observed dying. As you can see, the child mortality worldwide has gone from 22.7% in 1950 to 3.6% in 2023. That is more than a sixfold improvement. The significant uptick in child mortality in 1960 is because of the Great Leap Forward in China.

The graph below shows that the sharp decline in child mortality exists across all regions of the world. The graph depicts the child mortality rate for Africa, Asia, Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America, Europe and the whole world. You can play around with the graph and select your own regions and countries by clicking here. Note that Africa is the region with the worst numbers. However, the decline in child mortality still goes from 32.7% in 1950 to 6.3% in 2023, a fivefold decline.

The graph shows the child mortality rate from 1950 to 2023 for Africa, Asia, Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America, Europe and the whole world. The graphs have different colors. The decline in child mortality for Africa goes from 32.7% in 1950 to 6.3% in 2023, a fivefold decline.
Child mortality rate. Share of newborns who die before reaching the age of five. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024). OurWorldinData.org/child-mortality | CC BY

If you look further back in time the numbers are not as accurate, but they are a lot more impressive. In the maps below you can see that the child mortality rate in the 1800 is estimated to be between 30% and 60% everywhere in the world. If you look at the bottom map, you’ll see that the countries that are the worst off with respect to the child mortality rate in 2015 have a child mortality rate of 14%. That means that the worst off country in the 21st century is much better off than any of the countries were in the 1800. You can read more about this map and related information here.

The picture includes three world maps with the continents and countries outlined. They correspond to 1800, 1950 and 2015 respectively. The different colors indicate the child mortality rate. The worst child mortality rate is between 30% and 60% and is indicated in red. The top map for 1800 is all red. The map for 1950 features some countries in Africa that are red. In 2015 there are not countries indicated in red. | Child mortality has declined Globally yet Five Million Children Die Annually
Child mortality in 1800, 1950 and 2015. The share of children (born alive) who died before reaching their 5th birthday. Data: Our World in Data based on Gapminder for 1800, and United Nationas Population Division (2017) for 1950 and 2015. Licensed under CC-BY by the authors Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2019).

However, a child mortality rate of 3.6% still means that nearly five million children die every year before the age of five. The UN estimates that 990 million children have died globally since 1950. Most of these deaths are preventable. Infectious diseases and birth disorders (primarily preterm births and neonatal suffocation) dominate deaths among children under five. The impressive and almost steady decline in the child mortality rate across all regions in the world is a positive but surprising and important fact.

However, the fact that despite the success in reducing the child mortality rate five million children still die, and those deaths are preventable is a surprising but less positive fact. That’s why I consider this a super fact.

Look at the bottom half on the following page for details about the original sources.

Additional Child Mortality Rate Graphs and Maps

The pictures show two world maps side by side. The map on the left is for 1950 and the map on the right is for 2023. Red in the map indicates a child mortality rate between 20% and 50%. In the map for 1950 most of Africa, south and east Asia, and Latin America are red. No country is red in the 2023 map.
Child mortality rate 1950 vs. 2023. Share of newborns who die before reaching the age of five. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) OurWorldinData.org/child-mortality | CC BY
The pictures show two world maps side by side. The map on the left is for 1985 and the map on the right is for 2023. Red in the map indicates a child mortality rate between 20% and 50%. In the map for 1985 a few countries in Africa are red. No country is red in the 2023 map. | Child mortality has declined Globally yet Five Million Children Die Annually
Child mortality rate 1985 vs. 2023. Share of newborns who die before reaching the age of five. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) OurWorldinData.org/child-mortality | CC BY

In the graph below notice that Japan shows a decline in the child mortality rate from 9% in 1950 to 0.2% in 2023, which is quite impressive.

Japan shows a decline in the child mortality rate from 9% in 1950 to 0.2% in 2023. However, all graphs show a significant decline in the child mortality rate.
Child mortality rate in selected developed countries from 1950 to 2023, including the United States, Canada, France, Australia, Germany, Sweden and Japan. Share of newborns who die before reaching the age of five. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) OurWorldinData.org/child-mortality | CC BY
United States (0.6%), Canada (0.5%), France (0.4%), Australia (0.4%), Germany (0.3%), Sweden (0.2%) and Japan (0.2%).
Child mortality rate in selected developed countries in 2023, including the United States, Canada, France, Australia, Germany, Sweden and Japan. The child mortality rate is represented as bar graphs. Share of newborns who die before reaching the age of five. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) OurWorldinData.org/child-mortality | CC BY
The bar graph shows the child mortality rate for North American countries in 2023. From best to worst, Canada 0.5%, Cuba 0.6%, United States Virgin Islands 0.6%, Puerto Rico 0.6%, Northern America 0.6%, United States 0.6%, Costa Rica 0.8%, Mexico 1.2%, Bahamas 1.3%, Nicaragua 1.5%, Paraguay 1.7%, Guatemala 2.1%, Dominican Republic 3.2%
Child mortality rate in North American countries 2023. Share of newborns who die before reaching the age of five. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024 OurWorldinData.org/child-mortality | CC BY

The Death of Five Million Children

Five million children die every year — what do they die from?

44% died from infectious diseases including pneumonia, influenza, covid-19, malaria, rotavirus, cholera,  typhoid, hepatitis, encephalitis, measles, whooping cough, and meningitis, STDs, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. It may come as a surprise that 118,000 children died from measles in 2023 and 95,600 children died from whopping cough in 2023.

42% died from birth disorders including preterm birth, neonatal asphyxia, heart abnormalities, neonatal sepsis, etc. The remaining 14% were cardiovascular diseases, digestive diseases, genetic blood disorders, malnutrition, cancers, accidents such as drowning and transport accidents. You read the details and check the graphics here.

Related Super Facts

To see the other Super Facts click here

El Nino or Ocean Currents are not the Cause of Global Warming

Superfact 136: Ocean currents regulate global climate but are not the cause of the rapid Global Warming we are witnessing. El Niño events can combine with background global warming to temporarily increase global temperatures but is not the cause of the current rapid Global Warming. The cause for the recent rapid global warming is human activities, chiefly our greenhouse gas emissions. This in turn alters ocean currents and intensifies El Niño.

El Niño vs Normal Year Ocean Circulation Diagram with Trade Winds, Walker Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Vector Illustration. | El Nino or Ocean Currents are not the Cause of Global Warming
El Niño vs Normal Year Ocean Circulation Diagram. Trade winds are steady, prevailing winds that blow from east to west across the Earth’s tropical and subtropical regions near the equator The Walker Circulation is a large system of air movement near the equator in the Pacific. The air rises in the west pacific and sinks in the east pacific.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon caused by the weakening or reversal of the trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño and the corresponding cooling phase, La Niña, is also called the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is referred to as climate variability rather than climate change because the variations in climate are on shorter specific time scales, like a cycle. Other climate variability / cycles are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

El Niño temporarily spikes global temperatures and makes the impacts of global warming worse. It is important to understand that natural climate variability and cycles like El Niño are not the cause behind the rapid global warming / climate change that we have witnessed over the last 150 years.

The picture shows a severely flooded suburban street with cars floating around. | El Nino or Ocean Currents are not the Cause of Global Warming
A suburban street underwater. El Niño supercharges weather events leading to heavier floods among other things. I made this picture with the help of ChatGPT.

However, human-caused global heating from burning fossil fuels is making El Niño events stronger. Rising global background temperatures make a warmer atmosphere hold more water vapor. When El Niño happens on top of long-term climate change, it supercharges weather events leading to heavier floods, worse droughts, stronger heatwaves, and severe wildfires. Studies show that El Niño events are more than 36% stronger than they were before the industrial era began, with an acceleration in recent decades. This year we are expecting an extra strong El Niño. You can read more about that here and here.

The picture shows a typical world map but with the various ocean currents marked with red or blue.
Map of ocean currents. Shutterstock asset id: 2664465531 by Designua

The ocean and ocean currents are affecting climate. The oceans store heat from the sun and ocean currents help distribute the heat and regulate climate. However, even though ocean currents affect the rate of global warming they are not driving it. Global warming of surface air temperature is as mentioned largely due to increases in greenhouse gases, which lead to increased radiative heat fluxes toward Earth’s surface. You can read more here and here.

I have not come across many claims that specifically states that climate variabilities such as El Niño is what is causing the recent rapid global warming. However, I’ve seen many dismissive comments stating that it is just some sort of cycle (the unknown cycle). Comments such as “climate has always changed”, or “it is natural” are based on the mistaken assumption that scientists haven’t investigated natural causes for climate change. Therefore, I consider it a super fact.

What is not Causing the Recent Rapid Global Warming

This is my sixth and last post in the series about natural causes of climate change that we know are not the cause of the current rapid global warming / climate change. The fact that no known natural cause for climate change can explain the current rapid global warming is just one small piece of the evidence. However, it is a piece that people tend to get stuck on a lot. You often hear claims such as “climate has always changed”. “I think it is a natural cause”. To recap, these are the previous posts.

Superfact 122: We know that the current global warming, or if you call it Climate Change, or Climate Disruption, is caused by us primarily because of our burning of fossil fuels. It is not “natural causes”, and it is not orbital cycles, so called Milankovitch cycles. These orbital cycles include changes in orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and axial precession. We know that Orbital Cycles are not responsible for the current rapid global warming because Orbital Cycles operate on tens of thousands of years or hundreds of thousands of years, not a couple of centuries. We know that Orbital Cycles are not responsible for the current rapid global warming because the effects of Orbital Cycles are slowly cooling Earth, not warming it. The way the warming happens is also wrong for orbital cycles.

Superfact 124: The Sun is not the cause of current global warming. According to data from NASA, solar energy output has shown no net increase since the late 1970s. In addition, the amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen significantly. The current warming is driven by human-made greenhouse gases, not changes in the Sun.

Superfact 125: Volcanoes emit about 0.2 to 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year globally. Our burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities release more than 35 billion metric tons annually. Human emissions are roughly 60 to 100 times greater than all global volcanic output combined. Thus, volcanoes are not the cause of the current rapid global warming.

Superfact 128: There are a lot of natural carbon emissions from the soil, rotting plants, animal and human respiration, and oceans, and a small amount from volcanoes. However, carbon is also absorbed by the oceans, and by plants via photosynthesis, etc., and this creates a balance that has existed for many thousands of years. This is called the carbon cycle. Despite the fact that the carbon emissions from our burning of fossil fuels are much smaller than some of the naturally occurring carbon emissions mentioned, they are what is behind the increase of carbon in the atmosphere because they are a new addition that disrupts the carbon cycle.

Superfact 133: Water vapor is responsible for roughly half of Earth’s total greenhouse effect, but unlike carbon dioxide or methane, water vapor condenses and falls as precipitation. Water molecules only stay in the atmosphere for about two weeks. We do not directly control global water vapor levels. When carbon dioxide warms the planet the atmosphere holds more water vapor, which amplifies the initial warming. However, water vapor does not drive global warming. Carbon dioxide emissions and to a lesser degree methane emissions drive global warming. Water vapor just amplifies the effect.

The graph shows the temperature since the last ice age. There is a maximum temperature about 6,000 years ago, then a cooling and then a sharp uptick in temperature.
Global temperature going back twenty thousand years, a hockey stick graph. Notice the stable temperature during the last 10,000 years, coinciding with the development of human civilization, and also notice the sudden sharp increase at the end.

Conclusion

Climate variability, climate oscillations, climate currents affect climate and are important to climate and are affected by global warming, but they are not the cause behind the recent rapid global warming. It is caused by us primarily as a result of our burning of fossil fuels.

Super facts related to global warming

To see the other Super Facts click here